530
AXNT20 KNHC 122152
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Heavy Rainfall Over Florida:
A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions
could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of
this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally
westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and
north-central portion of the Gulf of America. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late
next week.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated from near
24W to 27N, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, reaching from
04N to 18N. Scattered to numerous showers are within about 180 nm
either side of the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward,
moving westward around 20 kt in the past several hours. Widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 32W
and 45W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from near SW Haiti
southward to north-central Colombia, moving westward around 10 kt.
No significant convection is noted near the wave axis over water.
Another tropical wave extends from the NW Caribbean near 84W
southward to across far eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and
central Costa Rica, moving westward around 10 kt. This wave is
helping to enhance convection over nearby area of Central America.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near El Mamghar, then curves southwestward through two
1014 mb lows near 12N22W and 11N40W to 07N45W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N45W to 06N48W to 08.5N55.5W. Any nearby convection is
described in the tropical wave section above.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough analyzed in the eastern Gulf is supporting
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 24N to 28N
between 85W and 89W. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high at the
northeastern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 2
ft seas at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate southeasterly winds prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 91W, and 2 to 3 ft across the
remainder.
For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure could form over
the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast.
Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the
gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as
the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula
and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf,
accompanied by active weather. At the same time, a weak high
pressure area located over the eastern Gulf will move toward the
western Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1024 mb Bermuda High sustains a trade-wind regime for the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds with seas at 6 to 9
ft are present in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail from 11N to 20N in the western
Caribbean. Mainly moderate winds and 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the
remainder of the basin. Some widely scattered showers are noted in
the eastern and SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh E winds are expected
across the Gulf of Honduras through the middle of the week,
pulsing to locally strong Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and
moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the
weekend while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail NW portions.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Convergent southerly winds are causing numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection off northeastern Florida. An upper-
level low is producing scattered moderate convection east of the
Bahamas from 22N to 30N west of 62W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning of this
discussion for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
A broad subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb at
31N37W to beyond central Florida. Gentle E to SE winds and seas
of 3 to 4 ft are present north 22N and west of 60W, and from 27N
to 31N between 25W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades are
elsewhere from 11N to 31N east of 50W, locally strong near the
coast of Africa. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in primarily NE swell. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across the
remainder of the open waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, a broad area of low pressure could
form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S.
coast. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive
for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next
week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida
Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the
Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through
mid to late next week. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the area of low pressure will support moderate to fresh
SE to S winds across the NW zones Tue through Wed.
$$
Lewitsky
