261
AXNT20 KNHC 092139
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Jul 9 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 18W from 04N to
18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 11N to 13N between 16W and 18W.
A tropical wave was repositioned to along 35W, from 05N to 18N,
moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is related to
this wave at this time.
A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean along 64W, moving
west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this
wave.
A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean near 832W from 21N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered convection is
active from 12N to 14N between 80W and 83W, and from 20N to 22N
between 82W and 86W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continues
to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 05N53W. Other than the
convection mentioned above in the tropical wave section, no
significant convection is evident at this time.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
1021 mb high pressure is centered over the north-central Gulf near
27N88W. A weak trough is noted over the coast of Veracruz in the
far southwest Gulf, and another trough is analyzed across the
Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle
breezes across the Gulf with slight seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, the weak high pressure will prevail across the basin
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and
shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving through the basin.
A strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean
continue to generate a tight pressure gradient that is resulting
in fresh to strong E winds in the central to SW Caribbean with
moderate seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds
are elsewhere with slight seas.
For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support pulsing
fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong east winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the
end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
Scattered thunderstorms are active along a trough over the central
and northern Bahamas, reaching to the northeast of the Bahamas to
30N72W. Elsewhere the entire subtropical waters are under the
influence of the Bermuda- Azores High, which is supporting
moderate or weaker winds eat of 65W, and moderate to fresh ESE
winds between 65W and 75W, except locally strong winds north of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Seas are slight to moderate across the
subtropical waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging extending westward across
central Florida will shift southward through Thu, then begin to
lift back N afterward. The related gradient will support gentle
to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong east to southeast
winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat and fresh
winds Sun and moderate to fresh winds early next week.
$$
Christensen
