000
AXNT20 KNHC 152224
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Mar 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to
enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, then move southeastward
across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale
northerly winds will follow the front, peaking to gale- force off
coast of Texas tonight through early Mon morning. Expect strong
gales off the Mexican coast between Tampico and Veracruz Mon, with
frequent gusts to storm force. Seas will peak to 15 ft with the
strongest winds. Both winds and seas should gradually subside
from north to south starting Mon evening.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W and continues
to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 04S38W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 21W and 38W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a storm warning.
Moderate to fresh SW to S return flow prevails along the western
edge of the subtropical Atlantic ridge, with locally strong winds
noted in the far NW Gulf off the coast of Texas. Scattered
moderate convection is evident on satellite along and west of a
trough reaching from the Yucatan Channel to just southwest of
Apalachicola, Florida.
For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf
tonight. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will
follow the front, forecast to extend from the Florida Panhandle to
near Veracruz, Mexico by early Mon morning, reaching the
southeastern Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Tue morning.
Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas are forecast in the
NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico tonight and
Mon. Frequent gusts to storm-force are expected offshore Tampico
and Veracruz on Mon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will
build across the region into midweek.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Strong to near-gale force trades were captured by scatterometer
satellite this morning, in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are currently 8-9 ft. The
scatterometer satellite also showed an area of strong E winds near
Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, mainly
fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean,
with 4-7 ft seas. Fresh E to SE winds are noted over the Gulf of
Honduras north of Roatan Island, with moderate to fresh SE winds
elsewhere across the northwest Caribbean. Altimeter data show wave
heights to be around 2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean.
Scattered showers are active over the eastern Caribbean
accompanying a surface trough moving east at 10-15 kt south of
Puerto Rico.
For the forecast, strong high pressure moving from the west to
the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles, and over
most of the east and central Caribbean, including in the Atlantic
exposures and Passages tonight through Tue. At that time, a cold
front moving across the Gulf of America will approach the NW
Caribbean. Then, the front will slow down reaching from western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An expansive subtropical Atlantic high pressure extends across
much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 25N and
west of 45W, including between the islands of the Lesser Antilles.
The persistent strong trades have built seas of 8-10 ft in E swell
within an area from the equator north to 22N between 45W and 65W.
Another area of fresh to strong trades is in the far eastern
Atlantic near the Canary Islands, where seas are 8-9 ft. Elsewhere,
trades are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure extends
a ridge across the forecast region producing fresh to strong winds
and rough seas across the SE waters. These marine conditions will
persist through Tue. Then, the ridge will retreat eastward early
this week in response to the next cold front. The front will move
off the U.S. southeastern coast by late Mon, then slow down and
stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba
by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will
develop over the NW forecast waters starting this evening ahead of
the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow the front
through early Tue. The front will remain nearly stationary through
Thu. At the same time, a low pressure may develop along the
frontal boundary and move quickly northeastward.
$$
Christensen
