998
AXNT20 KNHC 051837
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Chantal:
Tropical Storm Chantal was centered near 31.1N 78.7W at 05/1500
UTC or 115 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina, and moving N at 1
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas near and NE of
the center ranches from 11 to 13 ft. Numerous heavy showers and
scattered thunderstorms are occurring up to 130 nm NE of the
center. A general northward motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected this afternoon through Sunday night,
bringing Chantal across the coast of South Carolina Sunday
morning. Some additional strengthening is anticipated before
Chantal reaching South Carolina. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, up to
6 inches locally are probable across the coastal plain of the
Carolinas. The combination of storm surge and tide can cause 1 to
3 ft of water above ground level along the coast. Life-
threatening surf and rip currents will persist for the next couple
of days
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Three NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1036 mb high pressure system
located north of the Azores and low pressures in northwest Africa
will continue to support gale-force NE winds with severe gusts and
7 to 9 ft seas, for the waters between the Canary Islands, and
nearby waters until at least 06/1200 UTC according to Meteo Fran.
For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 19N
southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 06N to 08N between 30W and 35W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 16N southward,
and moving west at around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are
found from 06N to 08N between 40W and 43W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from western
Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is
moving west around 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from
15N to 17N between 71W and 75W.
Another tropical wave is near 89W from northern Belize southward
extends across Honduras and El Salvador into the far eastern
Pacific. No significant convection is present in the Caribbean
Sea.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal border
of Senegal and Gambia, then extends southwestward across 10N30W
to 07N45W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N45W to just north
of Guyana near 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
and south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 13N between the
Senegal-Guinea coast and 30W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across
the southwestern Caribbean Seas, south of 11N.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough curves southwestward from TS Chantal across
central Florida to the Florida Straits. Another surface trough
curves northwestward from the northeastern Gulf to near New
Orleans. Aided by an upper-level low near 27N88W, scattered
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are dominating the
eastern Gulf. Otherwise, a 1016 mb high at the central Gulf is
providing gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
for the northeastern Gulf. Moderate SE to S winds with seas of 2
to 4 ft are seen off the Texas coast and the Bay of Campeche.
Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.
For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop along these troughs over the waters near
Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next
week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next
week as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward
over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Sea. A 1024 mb Bermuda High near
32N56W continues to supply a trade-wind pattern for much of the
basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
dominate the southwestern, central and eastern basin. Gentle with
locally moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the
northwestern basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central basin
through midweek next week. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are expected in the eastern basin while gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Chantal and a Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the
Canary Islands.
Convergent southerly winds are generating widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from the northwest Bahamas northward to
beyond 31N between 73W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. A
surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection from
23N to 27N between 62W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.
Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are present
north of 28N and west of 75W. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge is
sustaining gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas north of 26N between
40W and Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther east between 35W
and 40W, and farther south from 10N to 26N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles/Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas
of 4 to 7 ft exist. Gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in mixed
moderate swells prevail elsewhere of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Chantal will move to
31.8N 79.0W this evening, then inland to 33.1N 79.3W Sun morning.
It will remain inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
34.6N 79.2W Sun evening, then to 35.8N 78.0W Mon morning, and
dissipate Mon evening. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. This
pattern will support generally gentle to moderate winds except for
moderate to fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
through Mon.
$$
Chan
