000
AXNT20 KNHC 152346
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W, then
continues SW to 02N16W. The ITCZ extends from 02N16W to 00N28W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06S to 05N
between 12W and 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from high pressure over the western Atlantic
across Florida into the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the diurnal trough Yucatan Peninsula supports fresh E
to SE winds within 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate E winds prevail, except for the NE Gulf where
light to gentle winds dominate. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, except
1 to 3 ft in the NE basin.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail
across most of the basin through Sat. The exception will be off
the Yucatan Peninsula, where a trough will allow fresh to strong
winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across
the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. The front will stall from
the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Ridging N of the Bahamas is forcing fresh NE winds through the
Windward Passage and S of Cuba, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh
to locally strong winds with seas 4 to 6 ft are also occurring
just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker
with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic
combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds
and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia into Thu, then mainly
gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the week.
Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will
persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through
tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in
the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from S of
Bermuda to just NW of the Mon Passage. Scattered moderate
convection is ongoing from 19N to 24N between 62W and 67W.
Farther northeast, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to
29.5N47W. Convection previously associated with this feature has
dissipated. A Bermuda- Azores High located north of the forecast
waters is interacting with the surface trough to cause moderate to
fresh NE winds from Bermuda, across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban
coast. Seas are 5 to 9 ft east of the Bahamas. A moderate
pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower
pressure in the vicinity over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to
locally fresh NE to E trades and moderate to rough seas over the
remainder of the forecast waters. Near the coast of NW Africa, NE
winds are fresh to locally strong north of 29N and east of 27W
with seas of 7 to 10 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough between Bermuda
and the Mona Passage will drift west toward the Turks and Caicos
Islands through tonight, then will remain nearly stationary
through late Thu while gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough across the
southern Bahamas through tonight, with conditions gradually
improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will
follow the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move
off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as
it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon.
$$
Konarik
