AXNT20 KNHC 222304

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.


The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/2100 UTC, is near 31.9N 61.4W, about 200 nm E of Bermuda, moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm in the NW quadrant and 300 nm in the NE quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 600 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 560 nm in the SW quadrant, and 510 nm in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 35 ft. A general northward motion is expected through early Saturday with a faster motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon will pass well east of Bermuda tonight. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next couple of days before gradual weakening starts on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 21W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-08N between 18W-23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-13N between 40W-46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-12N between 52W-60W.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 09N16W. The ITCZ starts west of a tropical wave near 06N21W to 06N41W, then continues west of another tropical wave near 06N44W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 250 nm of the ITCZ.


A mid-level trough is approaching the NW Gulf. Isolated thunderstorms are noted along the northern Gulf in addition to portions of the south-central Gulf. A 1009 mb low is in the Bay of Campeche near 20N90W with a trough extending from that low to 24N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N- 23N east of 93W to the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate northwest winds are noted west of the trough and moderate to fresh easterly winds continue across the northern and eastern Gulf. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist over the eastern Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat, reach from central Florida to southern Texas Sat night, then stall and dissipate on Sun. Gentle to moderate return flow will establish across the basin on Mon.


A 1009 mb low is off the Yucatan coast near 18N86W with a trough extending along the low 12N80W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted in the central Caribbean from 11N-19N across the Windward Passage between 69W-81W. Isolated thunderstorms have diminished in the Gulf of Honduras as low pressure gradually lifts NW. A 1009 mb low is in the SW Caribbean near 12N74W with the monsoon trough extending westward to the Costa Rica and Panama coast near 09N82W. Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft.

Troughing across the western Caribbean extending from a 1009 mb low near Cozumel southeastward to 13N81W will continue to provide widespread showers and thunderstorms over the western half of the Caribbean through early next week. Winds and seas will increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean on Sat through Mon as a tropical wave, currently near 44W, moves across the area.


Outside of Hurricane Epsilon, a trough over the Florida east coast is bringing scattered moderate convection to portions of northern Florida and South Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to the east of Epsilon from 19N-26N between 49W-55W. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high, east of the Azores, near 36N39W. Moderate easterly winds are in the western Atlantic off the coasts of Florida and the Bahamas. Seas are averaging 6-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are noted in the central and eastern Atlantic with seas averaging 6-9 ft.

Hurricane Epsilon near 31.9N 61.4W 968 mb will continue to move N of the area and is forecast to be near 33.0N 61.6W by Fri morning. The gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds and large seas over the western waters through Fri. Long-period northeast swell will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through early Sat.

$$ MTorres