751
AXNT20 KNHC 112320
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 11 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W
Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 00N50. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from the equator to 04N between 13W and 23W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from the western Florida panhandle to
the Yucatan Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms is
ahead of the front, affecting the eastern Gulf, mainly E of 86W
as well as parts of the Florida peninsula. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the NW and north-central Gulf in
association with an occluded low spinning over northern
Louisiana. Moderate to fresh SE winds are ahead of the front,
except N of 28N where fresh to strong S winds are noted. Gentle
to moderate winds are W of the front. Seas are 4 to 6 ft E of the
front, and 3 to 5 ft in the wake of the front.
For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms occurring along and
east of a stationary front, currently extending from the northern
Gulf Coast through the Yucatan Peninsula, will continue through
Mon, producing strong and erratic winds and rapidly building
seas. The front will drift eastward early this week, exiting the
basin on Tue. Farther west, a trough is slated to move across the
northern Gulf of America tonight through Mon, supporting pulsing
moderate to fresh W to NW winds across the northern basin into
Tue. Looking ahead, high pressure will build across the Gulf by
midweek. A strengthening pressure gradient between deepening low
pressure in the central United States and the aforementioned high
will support fresh to locally strong S to SE winds offshore of
Texas and Mexico Tue through late week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate winds are
in the E Caribbean, increasing to fresh speeds between the
islands in the Lesser Antilles, particularly N of St. Vincent
and the Grenadines Islands. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
in the NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range in the
south-central Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere across the
eastern and central Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the NW
Caribbean. A band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is
over the NW Caribbean, the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba,
ahead of the frontal boundary located over the eastern Gulf of
America. Some showers are thunderstorms are flared-up over the
Greater Antilles while patches of low level moisture, embedded in
the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the basin
producing isolated to scattered passing showers. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms over
most of Nicaragua, NE Honduras and northern Costa Rica.
For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong trade winds and
rough to very rough seas are expected across the central
Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, into early Wed
as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to
the north and the Colombian low. Periods of near-gale force winds
will be possible offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of
Venezuela each afternoon and night. Farther east, pulsing
moderate to fresh E winds and locally rough seas are likely
across the Atlantic Passages into the eastern Caribbean through
midweek. Looking ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish by
late week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored
by a 1031 mb high centered near 34N42W. The associated ridge
reaches the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and the NE Caribbean.
Under the influence of this system, moderate to fresh winds
prevail S of 22N between 45W and 60W with seas of 6 to 9 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
elsewhere. farther E, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is located SE
of the Madeira Islands near 31N14W.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh SE winds will
pulse offshore of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles into
this evening. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected to
develop tonight and continue into Tue offshore of central and
northern Florida as a strengthening pressure gradient develops
between high pressure in the western Atlantic and low pressure in
the southeastern United States. A cold front associated with the
low pressure system is slated to move offshore of the
southeastern U.S. on Tue and meander through midweek, before
weakening and lifting northeastward. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate
to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N this week. Locally
rough seas in NE swell will impact the waters near the Lesser
Antilles and across the passages into the Caribbean through late
week.
$$
GR
