AXNT20 KNHC 221221 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting winds reaching gale force strength from 10.5N to 13N between 73.5W and 77W. Waveheights within the area of gale force winds will range from 12-14 feet. These winds are forecast to diminish below gale force on Fri. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000 UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING and in METEOR.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S27W, and to 03S33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen S of 05N between 26W and 38W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere S of 10N and E of 60W.


GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

A weak cold front that moved into the far NW Gulf during the overnight hours is along a position from near the Texas/SW Louisiana border to a 1019 mb low at 27N96W and to inland the far NE coast of Mexico as of 09Z this morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and NW of the front and low per latest NWS radar imagery. The cold front is forecast to become stationary before lifting back N as a warm front today. A weak cold front is expected to drift into the far NW Gulf on Sat night, then become stationary. The gradient associated with strong high pressure that extends from the western Atlantic to over the eastern and central gulf waters will maintain fresh east to southeast winds to the E of the front and low, with the exception of strong east winds across the Straits of Florida through tonight before diminishing to mainly fresh winds on Friday as the ridge weakens.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding the Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters near the coast of Colombia.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean today, with nocturnal winds expected to pulse one more night to gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the weekend leading to diminishing winds and seas.


An upper level trough extends from an upper low dropping southward N of the area at 34N28W through 32N29W to 24N38W, then continues as a cyclonic shear axis to 23N46W to 21N56W and to the NE Caribbean Sea. The trough supports a cold front that is along a position from 32N23W to 21N29W, and as shear line to 18N49W to 17N58W and to the eastern Caribbean Sea at 17N71W. Broken low level clouds with isolated showers are to the NW and N of the line that passes through 32N22W to 23N26W, to 16N40W 15N60W, and to 15N73W in the Caribbean Sea.

A West Atlantic Ocean surface ridge will persist along 33N-34N through Thursday, and then drift SW and weaken slowly through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, with fresh to strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell will move through the waters that are to the E of 65W through Friday night. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the NE Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT/Aguirre