053
AXNT20 KNHC 292327
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Melissa is centered near 22.9N 74.8W at 29/2100 UTC or
70 nm SE of the Central Bahamas, moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft just E of
the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection continues near
Melissa, from 22N to 25.5N between 74W and 77W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 28N between 70W and
75W. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to
move across the southeastern and portions of the central Bahamas
this evening and early tonight, and pass near or to the west of
Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Some slight
strengthening is possible through tomorrow with little change in
strength then through Fri afternoon.
Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is
possible in the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and minor coastal
flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands this evening.
Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the
north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected
along the coast of Haiti.
Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the
next day or so, and are now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and will spread towards Bermuda later this
week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A strong cold over the Gulf extending from the Florida Panhandle
to near Tuxpan, Mexico will progress southeastward over the region
through Thu morning. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and
rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front through Thu
evening. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the wake of
the front in the NW Gulf this evening. Gale force N winds along
the coast of Mexico offshore of Tuxpan will spread southward to
Veracruz this evening through around midnight before gradually
diminishing overnight. Conditions across the basin will improve
early Thu night as the front moves southeast of the Gulf.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous showers
and thunderstorms are from 09N to 16N between 44W and 52W.
A tropical wave previously analyzed along 56W is now embedded in
the southeasterly low to middle level flow that prevails between
55W and Melissa. This feature has lost cyclonic turning in this
scenario, and is now ill defined. Scattered moderate convection is
found from 06.5N to 16N between 52W and 59W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12.5N17W and
extends southwestward to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to
04.5N33W to 06N42W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
02N to 09N between 20W and 42W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details about
the Gale Warning in effect over the basin.
A strong cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida to
near Tuxpan, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is depicted
along and ahead of the front, S of 21N and W of 93W. A tight
pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure over
SW United States supports near-gale to gale force winds north of
the front according to the latest satellite derived scatterometer
winds. A broad band of 10-12 ft seas, and higher, follows the
front from central portions to the Mexican coast. Moderate to
fresh NW winds, and slight to moderate seas are ahead of the front
elsewhere across the basin.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress
southeastward over the region tonight then move SE of the area
Thu morning. Gale force winds off Veracruz will diminish tonight.
Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will
prevail in the wake of the front tonight, with conditions
gradually improving through early Thu night. Another cold front
will enter the NW Gulf Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Attention remains focused on Hurricane Melissa, centered near
22.9N 74.8W at 29/2100 UTC. Please read the Special Features
section for all the information related to this dangerous
hurricane.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, cyclonic moderate to fresh winds
prevail W of 68W, while moderate to fresh E to SE winds are
occurring across the eastern portions E of 68W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
W of 68W, except 8 to 10 ft off the SW coast of Haiti and 9 to 12
ft through the Windward Passage, where winds remain around 30 kt.
Seas are 3-6 ft E of 68W. Narrow bands and small clusters of
moderate convection extends from the coastal waters of Nicaragua,
Costa Rica, and western Panama northeastward and across Hispaniola
generally W of 70W and then into the eastern side of Melissa.
For the forecast, Melissa will move further N of the area tonight,
with winds and seas diminishing modestly, except considerably
through the Windward Passage. A cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean early Thu and extend from central Cuba to the eastern
Gulf of Honduras by Thu evening before dissipating early Fri.
Trade winds will freshen over the E Caribbean Sat evening.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section for the details related
to major Hurricane Melissa.
Hurricane Melissa is centered near 22.9N 74.8W at 29/2100 UTC,
moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. To the
north of Melissa, a stationary front extends from 31N71W to
25N80W. Scattered to numerous showers are depicted ahead of the
front between 60W and 75W. A broad surface ridge covers the
remainder subtropical waters, centered on 1025 mb high pressure
near 30N35W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail S of
20N and E of 55W to 30W, where seas are 6-8 ft in N to NE swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will move to 25.1N 73.5W Thu
morning, near 29.1N 70.3W Thu afternoon, near 34.4N 65.2W Fri
morning, near 40.7N 58.7W Fri afternoon, weaken to an
extratropical cyclone near 46.6N 52.3W Sat morning, and 52.0N
45.4W Sat afternoon. A cold front will move offshore of the
southeastern U.S. early Thu morning, leading to increasing winds
and building seas over the western Atlantic ahead of Melissa
through late Fri morning. Rough seas in large swell associated
with the passage of Melissa will gradually subside through Sat.
$$
Stripling
