000
AXNT20 KNHC 102306
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun May 11 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ stretches
from 04N19W to 02N35W to 01N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
from the equator to 06N between 10W and 25W, and from 00N to 04N
between 30W and 42W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure centered
over SW Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds to gale
force, are ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf. This system
is also helping to induce convection over parts of Florida and
the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail
across the eastern Gulf ahead of the front, with 3 to 5 ft seas.
West of the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
prevail, with the exception of fresh to strong NW to N winds in
the western Bay of Campeche where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
For the forecast, the front will meander eastward through early
next week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near and to the
east of the front, leading to strong and erratic winds and rapidly
building seas near convection. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough
seas will diminish offshore of Veracruz this evening. Pulsing
fresh N winds will occur behind the cold front across the western
Gulf into early Sun. Farther east, pulsing fresh to strong S to
SE winds are expected east of the front through Sun as the
pressure gradient increases with building high pressure in the
western Atlantic. Looking ahead, the front is slated to exit the
basin early next week, allowing high pressure to build in the
Gulf of America.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia, in the vicinity of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic and
in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
prevail elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where winds are
blowing from the E and SE due to the presence of a frontal
boundary in the Gulf of America. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of
Cuba and Puerto Rico where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Some
showers are thunderstorms are flared-up over the Greater Antilles
while patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind
flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers. Convection is on increase in the
Yucatan Channel.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will occur across
the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage,
this weekend through early next week as a strong pressure
gradient prevails between the Colombian low and building high
pressure to the north. Periods of near-gale force winds will be
possible offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Building rough seas will occur in tandem with the
strong winds, with the highest seas expected near and to the west
of the strongest winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The main feature across the Atlantic is a 1032 mb high pressure
located near 35N47W. The associated ridge dominates most of
waters N of 15N and W of 30W and reaches the NE Caribbean and the
Bahamas. A high pressure cell of 1020 mb is analyzed NE of the
Bahamas near 28N71W. Farther E, a 1009 mb low pressure is situated
just S of the Madeira Islands. This system will move SE over the
next 24 hours while weakening. The pressure gradient between the
high and the low supports an area of fresh N winds N of 28N
between 24W and 32W. Seas of 9 to 12 ft are within these winds.
Fresh to locally strong trades are along the southern periphery
of the ridge, particularly between 42W and 56W with seas of
6 to 8. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the tropical
Atlantic, with 4 to 7 ft seas in open waters. Elsewhere moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds will develop offshore of Florida and north of the Greater
Antilles tonight into Sun as the pressure gradient strengthens
between high pressure in the western Atlantic and a complex low
pressure system in the southeastern United States. Strong SE to
S winds and locally rough seas are expected early next week
offshore of central and northern Florida ahead of a cold front
associated with the low pressure system. The cold front will
enter the western Atlantic and lift northeastward by midweek.
Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected
east of 65W through Sun, on the periphery of high pressure in the
central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds are then expected
for areas south of 25N through the middle of next week.
$$
GR
