000
AXNT20 KNHC 101757
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Feb 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Gale-force winds have
diminished over the waters north of 30N between 47W and 56W. The
long duration of these winds has resulted in very rough seas over
these waters. Both altimeter satellite data passes and Sofar
Spotter buoy data reveal seas of 18 to 24 ft in west to northwest
swell at 14 to 16 seconds north of about 27N between 46W and 55W.
Seas of 12 to 18 ft are present elsewhere north of 21N and
between 38W and 66W. The swell will slowly decay from W to E
allowing for these seas to drop below 12 ft for most areas by
early Wed evening. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the
latest forecasts.
South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tightening pressure
gradient between building high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will lead to
fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and
Jamaica into Wed night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force
tonight and again on Wed night offshore Colombia. Seas with these
winds are expected to be in the 8 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 M) range.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Peak seas this morning
SE of Bermuda along 31N will be as high as 18 ft. Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the extreme
southeast coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 02N13W and to 01N22W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W, to south of the
Equator at 42W and to along the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection extends from 00N to 06N between 08W
and 33W and from 00N to 04N between 37W and 42W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends across the Gulf, anchored by a 1026 mb
high pressure that is centered northeast of the Bahamas near
28N74W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively
lower pressure in the far western Gulf is generally allowing for
gentle to moderate mostly southerly flow across the basin ,with
the exception of moderate to locally fresh south winds offshore
NE Mexico and southern Texas. Both latest buoy and altimeter
satellite data passes indicate seas of about 2 to 4 ft throughout,
except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate Gulf
waters through late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly
southerly flow. Locally fresh winds are expected today and tonight
just west of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the far western
waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead,
southerly winds may increase this weekend ahead of an approaching
cold front, forecast to move across the western Gulf on Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
High pressure north of the area is building southeastward toward the
Caribbean, which is increasing northeast winds over much of the
basin to fresh to strong speeds. Seas are mostly 5 to 7 ft, although
rough seas are occurring in the southwestern basin offshore
Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and through the Atlantic passages
from the Mona Passage eastward as noted in recent altimeter
satellite data passes.
For the forecast, aside from the Special Features forecast for
gale-winds offshore Colombia tonight and Wed night, the same
inducing pressure gradient of those winds will also lead to fresh
to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between
Cuba and Jamaica into Wed night. In addition, large northwest to
north swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and
tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed creating hazardous marine
conditions.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
central Atlantic significant swell event.
Hazardous marine conditions from very rough seas dominate most of
the central subtropical basin as described above in the Special
Features section.
A cold front has recently entered the northern portion of the
central Atlantic along a line from near 31N45W to 26N57W. Latest
scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong west to northwest
winds behind the front to near 63W and north of 27N, and moderate to
fresh northwest to north winds elsewhere west of the front to near
72W. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are ahead of the front
north of 26N and east to a line from 31N35W to 26N39W. Seas behind
the front outside the significant swell event seas are in the range
of 8 to 12 ft in northwest to north swell elsewhere from 09N to 21N
between 38W and 62W and from along the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico
and the central and southeastern Bahamas north-northeast from 21N to
24N. Otherwise, a stationary front is dissipating from near 31N39W
to 25N50W to the Virgin Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near
15N70W. Scattered to broken low clouds, with possible isolated
showers are noted from 17N to 21N between 60W and 65W. Similar
clouds, also with possible isolated showers, are seen from 15N to
17N between 58W and the Leeward Islands to the northern Windward
Islands. Northeast winds of fresh speeds are over the waters roughly
from 15N to 20N between 59W and 62W. Moderate to fresh trades are
east of 59W, southeast of a line from the Canary Islands to the
Windward Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters, except for
slightly higher seas of 7 to 9 ft in northwest swell north of 18N
east of 28W, and of 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell south of 09N
between 41W and 55W. Light to gentle mostly southeast to south winds
are over an area bounded from 16N to 22N between 35W and 54W. This
is near and along a ridge axis that stretches southwestward from a
1027 mb high that is analyzed in the far eastern Atlantic at 30N21W
and where similar winds are found.
For the forecast west of 55W, near gale-force winds over the far
northeast part of the area will gradually diminish into tonight
as high pressure moves eastward across the waters. On the west
side of the high, southwesterly winds will increase over the NW
waters starting tonight, then reach strong speeds Wed, with seas
building to rough north of 28N. These winds will prevail over
northern waters through Wed night, before becoming strong northwest
winds as a cold front crosses the waters into Thu. Very rough seas
in northwest to north swell east of 67W will gradually decay below
12 ft from W to E through tonight, with improved seas by Wed.
$$
Aguirre
