000
AXNT20 KNHC 282239
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front prevails
across the W Caribbean, extending from E coast of Cuba to
inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border. This
boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep
moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected
through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily
over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize,
and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and
near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists.
Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the
area through today. Please follow your local weather office for
more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N19W to beyond 00N35W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from south of 04N between 00W and 10W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure over the N central Gulf coast maintains a broad
ridge across the basin. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail
across the basin, with moderate seas. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds are noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore
waters from Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore
flow has cleared the skies.
For the forecast, high pressure over the southern Plains will
shift east through Thu ahead of a low pressure area moving into
the lower Mississippi Valley, with trailing cold front that will
move off the Texas coast Thu night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds
and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from
Panama City, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Fri evening. The low
will rapidly deepen Fri as it moves into the western Atlantic
late Fri and Sat. This will reinforce the front as it moves
southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force winds over
the northeast Gulf by Sat, and possibly off Veracruz in the
southwest Gulf, with rough to very rough seas across the basin.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east
across the Gulf Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the
northern Gulf following the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall
even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.
A stationary front extends from the east coast of Cuba to inland
over far northern Nicaragua. The pressure gradient between this
front and the ridge to the N is resulting in fresh to strong N-NE
winds and moderate to rough seas over the NW Caribbean. A modest
pressure gradient also exists in the south-central Caribbean,
forcing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas and offshore of
NW Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near the E
coast of Cuba to far NE Nicaragua will persist in the area
through this evening before high pressure across the N Gulf of
America begins to move E through Fri. This will induce fresh to
strong N winds behind the front, and force it slowly eastward,
reaching from E Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Thu morning,
then stall and begin to weaken from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-
Panama border Thu evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold
front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move
southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba
to central Panama Sat evening, then reach from eastern Hispaniola
to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun evening. Strong to near gale-
force N winds are expected behind this front.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N48W to 26N61W, then becomes
stationary to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are
evident along this boundary. Moderate to fresh and locally strong
winds are behind the front, with rough seas in NW to N swell east
of 70W. Fresh SW winds and rough seas are within about 300 nm
ahead of the front north of 26N. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a ridge extending from 1021 mb high pressure
centered near 28N26W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted
south of 22N and east of 60W, with moderate seas in mixed E and
N swell. In the NE Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 27N
between 15W-35W. No significant weather is associated with this
feature. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern
Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area.
Rough to very rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 37W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic cold front extends
from 31N48W to eastern Cuba. Behind the front, moderate to fresh
winds and rough seas in NW swell prevail. The front will become
stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE
Bahamas and east Cuba this evening, then will meander across this
area through Thu. High pressure across the Gulf of America will
build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the
lingering front Thu through Thu evening. An unusually strong cold
front will enter the western Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated
low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic
this weekend, inducing a large area of westerly gale-force winds
across the local waters N of 24N Sat through Sun evening. The
front is expected to reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat
evening, and from 31N62W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.
$$
Adams
