000
AXNT20 KNHC 212307
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Oct 22 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Newly formed Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.2N 73.0W
at 2100 UTC or 265 nm S of Port Au Prince, Haiti, moving W at 13
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas near
the center are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection
extends from 11.5N to 17N between 68W and 73W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20.5N between 65W and 73W.
Melissa is a sheared tropical storm, with all convection currently
on the eastern side of the center. Melissa is expected to slow
down its forward speed and gradually turn to the northwest and
north during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti and
Jamaica later this week. Slow and gradual strengthening is
expected during the next few days. Swell generated by Melissa is
expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during
the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and the risk of flash
flooding and mudslides are possible for portions of Haiti and the
Dominican Republic through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave has been added to the map, located along 21W,
south of 15N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 17W and 28W.
A tropical wave along 36W extends south of 15N, moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
05.5N to 15.5N between 29W and 38W.
A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles along 57W, extending
from 08N to 18N, moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered showers
are ongoing from 09N to 14N between 57W and 60W.
A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea along 83W, south
of 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 76W and 82W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enter the Atlantic Ocean near 10N14W and
continues southwestward to 08.5N18W. The ITCZ extends from
06.5N22W to 07.5N34W, then resumes from 07.5N42W and continues to
06.5N58W. Other than convection described above with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection extends from 07.5N to 11N
between 40W and 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad and deep layered upper trough extends from the Great Lakes
region southward to the northern Gulf, and supports a cold front
that extends from the Ohio Valley southwestward to across central
Louisiana and southeast Texas. Scattered moderate convection has
developed along the front from southern Mississippi to extreme
southeast Texas and is spreading into the Texas and SW Louisiana
coastal waters. 1018 mb high pressure is offshore of central
Louisiana and extends a broad and weak ridge across the northern
Gulf. This pattern supports light to gentle NE to E winds across
much of the south half of the Gulf, and slight seas to 3 ft. Light
and variable winds prevail across the north half. There are two
surface troughs in the basin, one over the NE, and the SW Gulf,
however, devoid of shower activity.
For the forecast, a cold front will move into the Texas coastal
waters by this evening, then shift eastward and reach from near
Cedar Key, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas by Wed morning. The
front will move farther south over the eastern Gulf through Wed,
while lifting northward over the western Gulf, and will reach from
Tampa Bay, Florida to Galveston, Texas by Thu morning. The front
will stall from the Florida Keys to Sabine Pass, Louisiana by Fri
morning, then dissipate over the western Gulf through Sat. This
pattern will support fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough
seas across the southeast Gulf later in the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a Tropical
Storm Melissa.
Tropical Storm Melissa is near 14.2N 73.0W at 5 PM EDT, and is
moving west at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The
circulation of Melissa dominates the basin between 65W and 78W.
Aside from Melissa, scattered showers and tstms are over the NW
Caribbean due to a surface trough that extends from just east of
the Youth Island SW to southern Belize coastal waters. In the SW
Caribbean, a tropical wave is generating heavy showers and tstms
over the Nicaragua and Costa Rica near and offshore waters. West
of 78W gentle to moderate NE winds generally prevail across the
basin, with seas 3 to 5 ft. Across the eastern Caribbean east of
65W, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds prevail, with seas 5 to
7 ft.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to move to
14.5N 73.7W Wed morning, to near 15.0N 74.4W Wed afternoon, and
near 15.5N 75.0W Thu morning. Melissa will remain a strong
tropical cyclone as it continues to 16.1N 75.1W Thu afternoon, to
16.5N 75.0W Fri morning, and near 16.9N 75.0W by Fri afternoon.
Melissa will strengthen to a hurricane as it nears the southwest
point of Haiti near 17.3N 75.0W by Sat afternoon. Higher than
normal uncertainty remains with the forecast for Melissa beyond
Thursday.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N73W to just north of Grand
Bahama Island. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of the Azores and Bermuda Highs, separated by a trio of
old fronts and frontal troughs north of 26N between 39W and 50W.
Scattered moderate convection is to the east of these boundaries,
north of 26.5N between 35W and 46W. South of the ridges on either
side, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate, except
for locally fresh easterly winds occurring between the Greater
Antilles and 22N, between 55W and Hispaniola. Seas are 6 to 7 ft
in this zone.
For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front from 31N73W to
just north of Grand Bahama Island is dissipating. A second cold
front will move off the coast of Florida Wed morning, continue to
move southeastward through mid week, before stalling from near
Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Fri night. High pressure building
in the wake of the front will support strong NE to E winds and
rough seas north of the boundary Fri through Sun. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Melissa continues to develop in the south-central
Caribbean, and is forecast to move into the north-central
Caribbean by Thu. This pattern will support fresh E to SE winds
over the waters south of 22N and west of 70W, with rough seas by
Sun near the northern entrance to the Windward Passage.
$$
Stripling
