000
AXNT20 KNHC 112110 CCA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Feb 11 2026
Corrected Gulf of America forecast
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower
pressure in Colombia and Panama will support fresh to near gale-
force winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage, and the water between Cuba and Jamaica, into
tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight offshore Colombia.
Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 12 ft (2.5
to 4 m) range.
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Seas of 12 to 14 ft in west
to northwest swell at 12 to 16 second periods are over the area
north of 23N between 20W and 52W. Seas are forecast to slowly
decay to less than 12 ft (4 m) from SW to NE through early this
evening as the swell loses energy.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and
continues southwestward to 03N25W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 02N30W to 01N40W to the Equator near 51W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 05N
between 44W and the coast of South America.
...GULF OF AMERICA...Corrected
A weak pressure gradient in place will allow for generally light
to gentle anticyclonic across the basin, with the exception of
winds becoming northeast to east, moderate to fresh in speeds,
beginning in the afternoons and into the overnight hours through
the end of the week. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the basin, with the
exception of seas to 5 ft in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida.
For the forecast, little change is expected in the current
conditions through the end of the week for the majority of
the Gulf. Southerly winds will increase to fresh to strong
speeds this weekend ahead of a cold front that will moves cross
the west and central waters Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are
possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system. Conditions
are expected to remain favorable for the formation of patchy fog to
areas of widespread dense fog along and near coastal locations and
in bays.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia.
High pressure of 1024 mb is analyzed east-northeast of the
Bahamas near 28N69W. A subtle ridge extends from the high south-
southwestward to near 17N75W. The gradient between it and
relatively lower pressure to the south is supporting fresh to near
gale-force northeast winds over the central Caribbean, Windward
Passage, and waters south of the Greater Antilles. Seas over the
central Caribbean are in 8 to 11 ft range. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in north to
northeast swell are over the eastern part of the basin while seas
of 4 to 6 ft are west of about 80W, except for slightly lower seas
of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Large, long-period northwest
to north swell is bringing seas of 7 to 9 ft through the Mona and
Anegada Passages.
Scattered to broken mostly low-clouds moving westward with the
trades are noted mainly north of 12N, with more concentration of
these clouds present over the eastern part of the basin from 14N
to 18N, where the tail-end of a trough is located. Isolated
mostly light showers, with gusty winds are possible within these
areas of clouds.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support fresh to strong winds across most of the central
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between
Cuba and Jamaica, into tonight. Winds will pulse to gale force
tonight offshore Colombia. Large northwest to north swell will
continue to impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical
north Atlantic waters today, creating hazardous marine conditions.
Late this week into the weekend, the pressure gradient will
relax, leading to moderate to fresh trades dominating the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
significant west to northwest swell that is impacting portions
of the central subtropical Atlantic.
A 1024 mb high center is analyzed over the western Atlantic
northeast of the Bahamas near 28N69W, with a subtle ridge that
extends south-southwestward toward the north-central Caribbean
Sea. A 1343Z Ascat pass from this morning indicates moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds south of 22N between 70W and 79W,
with the fresh winds mostly concentrated between Great Inagua and
the entrance to the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with
these winds. A 1417Z Ascat pass from this morning shows fresh to
strong southwest to west winds over the waters northwest and north
of the 1024 mb high center. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds.
To the east, a stationary front extends from near 31N35W to
23N48.5W, where it begins to dissipate to 20N54W, then
transitions to a trough to the Leeward and to the northeastern
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are
within 120 nm east of the front north of 25N. Seas there are as
described under the Special Features section. Farther east, a 1027
mb high center is to the northwest of the Canary Islands near
31N20W. A ridge extends southwestward from the high to near
23N39W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal moderate
to fresh northeast to east winds roughly to the south of a line
from the Canary Islands to 20N28W to 20N52W and to 20N70W. Seas are
8 to 12 ft in long-period northwest swell within this area of winds.
The scatterometer satellite data passes also show light to gentle
anticyclonic winds near the 1027 mb high center and associated ridge.
For the forecast west of 55W, the southwest winds on the west
side of the high pressure that is in place over the western
Atlantic will continue to increase over the northern waters will
continue to increase today, reaching fresh to strong speeds this
afternoon ahead of the next cold front. This front is forecast to
move across the northern and central waters east of Florida
from this evening into Thu, shifting east of 55W Fri night.
Scattered showers may preceded the front. Looking ahead, more
strong south to southwest winds along with quickly building seas
are expected offshore the southeastern United States coast
beginning Sun ahead of a strong cold front.
$$
Aguirre
