000
AXNT20 KNHC 060143
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue May 6 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of
Senegal at 14N16.5W and extends south-southwestward to 06N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to the coast of Brazil at 02.5N51W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from
02N-06.5N between 10W-21W and ongoing from 03N-09N between
27W-46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from central Florida across the Tampa
Bay area westward to 27N91W, where it becomes a warm front to the
S Texas coast. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring north of the warm front across the Texas and SW
Louisiana coastal waters. Winds west of 95W are fresh ESE, while
fresh winds are within 90 nm of the N and NW coasts of the
Yucatan. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or moderate across the Gulf.
Seas are 1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 3-5 ft in the W Gulf.
For the forecast, the stationary front from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to SE Texas will gradually wash out. Gentle to moderate
winds dominating the western basin will strengthen tonight through
Wed morning. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Straits
of Florida through mid- week. A weak front may reach the NW Gulf
mid- week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is
creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf,
with the lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
With a weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High
north of the Caribbean and a 1009 mb Colombian Low, trades are
only gentle to moderate across most of the Caribbean this
afternoon, except for localized areas of fresh winds across the
Gulf of Honduras and just north of the A-B-C Islands. Seas are
2-4 ft across the basin except 4 to 5 central portions. Widely
scattered showers are seen across the NE and N-central portions,
while scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are across the
nearshore waters of NW Colombia, in association with the E end of
the Pacific monsoon trough.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will
pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds
nightly starting Tue night. Winds will pulse to fresh nightly near
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to
moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through
the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from 19N60W to 26N62W, supported by a
collocated upper level trough. A 1030 mb high center is located
across the central Atlantic near 36N51W and drapes across this
surface trough to the SW and SE. The pressure gradient between
these two features is producing a zone of fresh to locally strong
E to ESE winds from 21N to 31N between 50W-62W, where seas are 6-9
ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N-30N
between 47W-61W. A stationary front is located from the NE Florida
coast north- northeastward to 31N80W with scattered moderate
convection north of 29N between 76W-79W. Except as noted above,
winds across the forecast waters are gentle to moderate with seas
4-7 ft in mixed wind waves and N swell. To the E of 50W moderate
to fresh NE to E trades prevail to 25W. Seas in this area are 4 to
6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong
northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will gradually shift
westward through the early part of the week as the trough drifts
westward. A stationary front along the southeastern U.S. coast
will gradually lift back northwest as warm front through the
middle of the week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end
of the week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the western waters in the early part of the
week.
$$
Stripling
