000
AXNT20 KNHC 122342
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Mar 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2255 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has exited the
southeastern coast of the United States. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and moderate seas are occurring behind the front. Fresh to
strong southerly winds and moderate seas are found ahead of the
front, especially north of 28N and west of 75W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are evident ahead of the
front. A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the NW waters
for tonight. Peak winds should reach around 35 kt with peak seas
around 10 ft tonight. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin
to stall as it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida
tomorrow morning, and conditions will gradually improve tomorrow.
For the gale events above, please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 02N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N21W to 01S30W and to 02S43W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N and between
11W and 22W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Tampa Bay area to
18N94W in SE Mexico. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft are behind the front. Near gale-force NW-N winds are found
in the western Gulf and off Veracruz. Elsewhere across the Gulf
ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft.
For the forecast, the front will stall and significantly weaken
over the southeastern Gulf tonight into early Fri, dissipating Fri
night. Marine conditions will improve significantly early Fri
through Sun as weak high pressure settles just N of the basin.
Another strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun
night and reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night. Strong to
near gale-force winds will follow the front along with seas
rapidly becoming rough. Gale force winds will be possible in the
NW Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico Mon and Mon
night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower
pressures in NW Colombia support fresh to strong NE trades just
north of Colombia, moderate to fresh E trades over the eastern,
central and SW Caribbean, and moderate or weaker in the NW
Caribbean. Seas are 6-8 ft just north of Colombia, 5-7 ft over
the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, and 2-5 ft over the NW
Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are affecting the
Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba, with some of the convection
over the coastal waters.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin through
the rest of this morning. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will also
pulse near the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and the Gulf of
Honduras also through the rest of this morning. The high pressure
will shift eastward today through Fri night, leading to fresh to
strong winds becoming confined to the south- central Caribbean S of
13N during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area-
wide as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will build
across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh
to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N
Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
In the western Atlantic, aside from the cold front mentioned in
the Special Features section, a subtropical ridge dominates the
region maintaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.
Elsewhere, ridging extends west-southwestward to 27N80W from a
1033 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 36N30W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is causing
widespread moderate to fresh trades over the forecast waters with
seas 4-8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds are
E of northern Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. That
front will move offshore of NE Florida by this evening, with fresh
to gale-force winds and quickly building seas behind it Thu
night. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to stall as
it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida Fri morning, then
drift to the NW and dissipate Fri evening. High pressure ridging
will then prevail across the northern waters Sat and strengthen
Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to locally strong winds
and rough seas nearly basin-wide. The next cold front may move
into the waters off Florida Mon night.
$$
Delgado
