578
AXNT20 KNHC 101610
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1555 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from near the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W
to 00N25W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A strong ridge over the eastern United States is supporting
moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft north of a
line from SE Texas to the western tip of Cuba. Light to gentle
winds and moderate seas are noted south the aforementioned line. A
few showers are noted east of southern Texas, while generally dry
conditions persist across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will
support strong northeast winds and rough seas across the
northeast Gulf through early this afternoon. Moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere
across the basin through the middle of next week, except for
occasional strong east winds off western Cuba and off the
northwest Yucatan. Rough seas will continue in the Straits of
Florida into early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are moving across the NW Gulf in the offshore waters of Texas.
This activity may hold together through this afternoon.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between the strong ridge over the eastern
United States and lower pressures in northern South America
results in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9
ft across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the north- central,
SW and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
seas of 2-4 ft prevail. No significant convection is seen across
the basin. However, shallow pockets of moisture are causing
isolated showers in the eastern and central Caribbean.
For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from
the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and
increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the
south- central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next
week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will
prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of
Hispaniola starting on Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and
stretches southwestward to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of
23N and between 60W and 72W. The tight pressure gradient between
this front and the ridge over the eastern United States sustains
fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front.
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and rough seas are evident
ahead of the front to 57W and north of 28N.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
an extensive subtropical ridge south of the Azores that forces
fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and
eastern Atlantic, especially north of 12N and east of 57W. Seas in
these waters are 8-12 ft. Moderate to locally fresh and seas of
6-10 ft are present elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between the
front and ridge over the eastern United States will maintain
strong northeast through tonight, then mostly fresh wind speeds
will prevail until Sun. Rough seas from large northeast swell will
linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the
Bahamas. Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected early on Sun
and continue through early next week as the pressure gradient
tightens across the area.
$$
Delgado
