000
AXNT20 KNHC 160946
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W, then continues southward to
03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil near
02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
S of 03N between 14W and 43W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure over the western
Atlantic westward across northern Florida and the northern Gulf.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures
across the western Caribbean, as well as the diurnal Yucatan
Peninsula trough supports fresh NE to E winds within about 90 nm
of the coast of the Yucatan and the E Bay of Campeche, and fresh
E winds through the Straits of Florida. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across
these areas. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail,
except for the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds and slight seas
dominate. Seas are 3 to 4 ft across the remainder of the eastern
Gulf and 4 to 6 ft across the western Gulf.
For the forecast, the current ridge across the N Gulf will remain
in place and slowly weaken through Sat to maintain gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will
allow fresh winds to pulse to strong during the evenings. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will
follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night
through Sun night. The front will stall from the Florida Straits
to south Texas by late Mon. Fresh SE winds are expected ahead of
the front over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Fri.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad and deep layered cyclonic circulation continues across the
Greater Antilles, the western half of the Caribbean and the
adjacent Atlantic waters. This is inducing an inverted trough in
the low levels that extends from Dominican Republic northward
into the western Atlantic. This trough is weakening the local
pressure gradient and supporting gentle to moderate winds across
the eastern Caribbean E of 70W, except fresh winds along the NE
coastal waters of Venezuela. Seas are 3 to 4 ft across these
waters and 5 to 6 ft in the fresh winds off of NE Venezuela.
The western Atlantic ridge extends southwestward across the
Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, and is forcing fresh to strong NE
winds through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of eastern
Cuba, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring offshore Colombia. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate NE to E winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.
Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, extends from Venezuela
across the SE Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles into the tropical
Atlantic.
For the forecast, a surface trough extending from Hispaniola
northward into the western Atlantic will move slowly westward and
weaken through the weekend. This feature will disrupt the typical
pressure pattern across the basin during this time. Expect fresh
trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia at night
through Fri night, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected
there during the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds and moderate seas will persist in the lee of Cuba,
and in the Windward Passage through early today. Winds and seas
will generally diminish across the basin as the trough passes
north of the area Fri through the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad and deep layered cyclonic circulation extends from a small
upper-level low located just N of Hispaniola across the Bahamas,
the Greater Antilles, and the western Caribbean. This features has
induced a surface trough that extends from Bermuda to Dominican
Republic. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing E of the surface
trough and near the small upper low, particularly from 19N to 23N
between 60W and 70W. A surface ridge extends across the north portion
of the forecast area from the Azores to Bermuda and north-central
Florida into the northern Gulf of America. The associated pressure
gradient W of the aforementioned surface trough is producing a
broad area of fresh NE winds south of 29N through the central and
southeast Bahamas and across the eastern half of Cuba. Seas are 6
to 8 ft in this area. A moderate pressure gradient prevails south
of the ridge and E of the surface trough to 20W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds prevail across the basin S of 26N and into the tropics,
with an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds affecting
the waters from 06N to 12N between 50W and 56W. Seas are 7 to 9
ft with these winds based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are observed N of 20N and E of 20W, including the Canary
Islands. Moderate to rough seas are related to these winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending between
Bermuda and Dominican Republic will drift west toward the Turks
and Caicos Islands today, then will remain nearly stationary
through Fri while gradually weakening, then drift westward and
dissipate through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds and
moderate to locally rough seas will persist west of the trough
across the southern Bahamas through this morning, with conditions
gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High
pressure will build into the area from the E following the trough.
Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of
northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds
and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon.
$$
GR
