925
AXNT20 KNHC 270433
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jul 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 27W,
south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 05N to 09N and between 23W and 30W.
A strong tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 54W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 05N to 23N and between 52W and 58W.
Similar convection is noted from 06N to 09N and between 50W and
57W.
A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean near 64W, south of
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
trough axis.
A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean near 78W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is observed
with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 07N38W. The
ITCZ is analyzed from 07N38W to 07N51W, and then resumes from
07N53W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
08N to 15N and between east of 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers over the
western half of the Gulf of America, while the eastern half is
under a weak surface ridge that promotes generally dry conditions.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds over the western half of the Gulf and the SE
waters, including the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are
3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the middle of next week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes
and slight to moderate seas. The exception will be moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds along the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts
westward over the Bay of Campeche at night through Mon night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A ridge over the SE United States is forcing fresh to strong
easterly winds over the central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage, the lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are
occurring off NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured moderate to fresh easterly winds in the remainder of the
Caribbean waters. Seas in the area described are 3-6 ft. A few
showers are noted in the NW and SW Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to strong northeast
winds in the Windward Passage are expected to diminish tonight
into early Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A couple of weak surface troughs in the SW North Atlantic are
producing a few light showers between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The
rest of the basin west of 55W is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge that maintains fairly tranquil weather
conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh
to strong easterly winds off northern Hispaniola and the entrance
of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate
SW-W winds and moderate seas are found north of 28N and between
47W and 59W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are noted south of 24N and west of 40W. In the rest
of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh
winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward
Passage through Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
along with mostly moderate seas are expected.
$$
Delgado
