099
AXNT20 KNHC 222348
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Jul 23 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2340 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with its axis near 20W, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
07-13N between the coast of Africa and 30W.
A tropical wave is in the cental Atlantic with axis near 36W,
moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
seen from 10-14N between 32W-37W.
A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 55W,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 08N-16N between 51W-63W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and
continues southwestward to 10N24W to 08N43W. The ITCZ then
extends from 08N43W to 10N53W. For information about convection
see the Tropical Waves section.
The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the SW Caribbean generally S of 13N and W of 79W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Upper-level divergence over the region and a surface trough over
the Florida Peninsula are resulting in scattered moderate
convection over portions of the NE and SE Gulf E of 87W. A weak
1018 mb high pressure centered near 26N92W dominates the remainder
basin, resulting in moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
seas of less than 3 ft, except for moderate to fresh NNE winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, weak high pressure over the NE Gulf will move
westward allowing for a broad and weak area of low pressure to
also move westward across the northern Gulf waters Wed trough Fri.
The pressure gradient between the low and the Atlantic ridge will
support increasing winds to fresh speeds across the NE Gulf on
Thu and Thu night and across the north-central part of the basin
on Fri. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms also
expected in association with this system. In fact, shower and
thunderstorm activity is already on increase across the NE Gulf.
Elsewhere, fresh northeast to east winds are forecast along the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening for the next few days
as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the
Bay of Campeche at night..
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region
and the Colombia low pressure is sustaining fresh to strong
northeast to east winds across the south-central and SW Caribbean
along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades
and seas of 5 to 6 ft remain across the eastern basin, but winds
in the NW Caribbean are moderate or weaker, with lower seas of 2
to 4 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through Wed. Fresh
to locally strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in
the Windward Passage are expected to continue through the forecast
period. A large tropical wave, currently located along 53W, is
forecast to move into the Tropical N Atlantic tonight, reaching
the Lesser Antilles by Wed morning, and moving just south of
Puerto Rico on Thu morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity ahead
of the wave axis are already reaching the Lesser Antilles. Fresh
to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are also
expected in association with the passage of the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Upper-level divergence over the region and a surface trough over
the Florida Peninsula are resulting in scattered moderate
convection over the northern and central Bahamas offshores as
well as the Florida offshore waters. The remainder basin is
dominated by ridging stemming from the 1027 mb Azores High.
Winds across the subtropical waters are moderate or weaker and
seas are moderate, except for moderate to fresh E winds S of 24N
between 55W and 78W and SSW winds of similar speed off NE and
central Florida. Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, fresh to
strong NE winds prevail between the Canary Islands and the NW
coast of Africa where seas 5 to 8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
continue to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast
region through Wed producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow along with mostly moderate seas. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate seas from just north of Hispaniola to 22N, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage, are expected to continue
through the rest of the forecast period. A frontal boundary is
forecast to reach the NE waters toward the end of the work-week
with little change in winds and seas.
$$
Ramos
