000
AXNT20 KNHC 201047
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jul 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced 23W from
06 to 17N based on the SUNY-Albany Tropical Trough Diagnostics.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm west of the
wave from 11N to 13N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W from 05N
to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 07N to
13N.
The tropical wave that was previously near 89W has moved well
inland the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America. This wave
is being described in the eastern Pacific Ocean Tropical Weather
Discussion.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward
to 11N35W to 09N40W to a 1012 mb low near 08N44W and to 08N46W.
Scattered moderate to isolate strong convection is seen within
120 nm south of the trough between 24W and 29w. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 24W and
29W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near western
Panama.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the eastern Bay of Campeche and in the far southwestern Gulf.
Another surface trough across the spine of Florida is inducing
isolated thunderstorms offshore of Naples. Otherwise, a 1021 mb
high at the northeastern Gulf continues to dominate much of the
Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh northeast to southeast
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist at the Florida Straits, Bay of
Campeche and northwestern Gulf. Gentle southeast to south winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail
across the basin through the middle of the next week producing
gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas. Fresh
to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse along the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening well into the
upcoming week as a trough develops inland daily and shifts
westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. Looking ahead, winds
may increase to fresh speeds across the NE Gulf by Thu as broad
low pressure moves across the southeastern U.S. before possibly
moving from E to W across the northern Gulf. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected over most of the eastern and north-
central Gulf waters starting Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
are evident at the south-central and part of the southwestern
basin. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and 4 to 7 ft
seas are noted at the north-central basin, lee of Cuba and
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the rest of the northwestern basin.
Moderate with locally fresh northeast to east winds and 3 to 6 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over and near the
southwest section of Haiti and near eastern Cuba.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early next
week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate to
rough seas are expected to begin again in the Windward Passage
starting Tue night and continue through late in the week. A
tropical wave is expected to move into the Tropical N Atlantic Tue
through Wed, then move across the eastern Caribbean and the
eastern part of the central Caribbean Wed night through Thu night.
This wave is likely to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
over these waters in addition to being accompanied by fresh to
strong trades near its northern portion. An area of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms related to a weak low pressure
is likely to precede the wave.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A ridge extends southwestward from a 1027 mb high that is over
the north central Atlantic through 31N45W and to a 1022 mb high
off eastern Florida near 29N76W. These features are promoting
light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 26N between
50W and the Florida east coast. Farther south from 10N to 26N
between 50W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, and farther east from
10N to 31N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate. For the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh
southeast to south winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell
prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the weather
pattern across the forecast region through the early part of the
upcoming week. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail
along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and
moderate seas are expected to begin again in the Windward Passage
starting Tue night and continue through late in the week. Winds
will diminish slightly into Tue evening as high pressure weakens
over the western Atlantic, and a frontal boundary moves to over
the offshore waters of northeastern Florida. This front will then
stall, with low pressure possibly forming along it.
$$
Aguirre
