000
AXNT20 KNHC 041809 CCA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues
SW to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 02S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 05N and E of 30W, as well as off
the coast of northern Brazil.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends SE into the basin. Under the influence of this
ridge, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas prevail,
except in the Straits of Florida where strong E winds are
ongoing. Scattered showers are ongoing in the NW Gulf as a cold
front approaches the region and convergence at the surface
increases.
For the forecast, a cold front will push offshore the Texas coast
tonight and move slowly southeastward across the basin through
Mon night. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong east winds will
prevail in the Florida Straits into tonight. Behind the front,
strong northeast winds and rough seas are expect across portions
of the western Gulf Sun into Mon, with these conditions spreading
into the NE Gulf Mon night through Wed. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may precede the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian
low is supporting fresh trades over the most basin, except for
locally strong NE winds offshore Colombia. Seas are generally
moderate, except locally rough seas within the strong winds
offshore Colombia. Convergent surface winds are leading to
isolated showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue
to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia
into tonight. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides
eastward Sun allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will
lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough
will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon
through Tue and drift westward toward the Bahamas. The gradient
between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh
trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the
area and relatively lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for
a corridor of fresh to strong E winds and rough seas N of the
Greater Antilles, generally S of 28N between 60W and a surface
trough along 73W. Farther east, moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds along with moderate seas over much of the waters E of
60W. A low and mid- level trough drifting W through the Turks and
Caicos and SE Bahamas is generating scattered moderate convection.
In the central to east Atlantic, an upper level low is inducing a
surface trough along 43W from 22N to 30N, as well as a weak 1016
mb low and trough near 24N27W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near these features. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is over just about
the entire area. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in the subtropics and tropics is
producing fresh to strong east winds south of about 26N. Rough seas
have materialized from these winds east of the Bahamas. Conditions
will improve Sun night into Mon as the high weakens slides eastward
in response to an approaching cold front. This front will slowly
move off the southeastern U.S. and northeast Florida Sun night
reaching from near 31N76W to east-central Florida Mon afternoon,
from near 31N70W to South Florida Tue afternoon, then from near
31N63W to the Straits of Florida by Wed afternoon. Low pressure may
track along this front during this time while an expansive area of
strong high pressure builds southward up against the frontal
boundary. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to widespread
strong to near gale force northeast to east winds behind the cold
front, along with rough to very rough seas beginning Tue. The
potential exists for these winds attaining gale-force. Mariners are
advised to keep up with the latest forecast.
$$
Adams
