000
AXNT20 KNHC 251648
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1647 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends SW
to 01S28W. The ITCZ continues from 01S28W to 02S40W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 05N east of 17W,
and from 06S to 03N between 23W and 43W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted north of 27.5N
between 85.5W and 89W. Otherwise, a surface ridging extends over
the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W
of 88W and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters
along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light and variable winds
prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft.
For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in a cluster of severe thunderstorms currently located over
SE Louisiana and regional waters.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft
prevail over the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough,
currently located between Cuba and the Bahamas lifts NE this
weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will
support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean
Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the
Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at
night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate
to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night
through mid-week as high pressure builds again N of the area.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from a
1011 mb low pressure located near 24N71W westward to the Straits
of Florida. These features are supporting scattered to isolated
moderate convection in the vicinity of the low. Fresh to locally
strong winds in connection to the areas of convection associated
with the low are likely. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a pair of 1020 mb
highs W of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds
and rough seas are ongoing over the north-central Atlantic in
connection with an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands
with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in
the deep tropics all the way to the Lesser Antilles offshores.
Seas are moderate across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
and low are forecast to move eastward this weekend before
dissipating on Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring
moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE
offshore waters through tonight. Another cold front is forecast to
enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near
Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N58W to the NW
Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating.
$$
KRV
