079
AXNT20 KNHC 090611
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat May 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.
...Caribbean Gale Warning...
A tight pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high over the western
Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia
will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with
rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next
week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours
tonight through Mon night, these winds are expected to peak at
near-gale to gale-force off Barranquilla.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 11N with
axis near 42W, moving west at 5 kt. There is no deep convection
associated with this wave at this time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 02S30W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
offshore Liberia to 15W. Scattered modereate convection is
elsewhere from 06S to 05N between 19W and 39W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weakening stationary front extends westward from the Florida
Big Bend area to the middle Texas coast. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms linger near the boundary. Recent
scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the
frontal boundary over the NE basin. Scatterometer data also show
fresh SE winds offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula associated
with a surface trough moving into the E Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, a weak 1015 mb high pressure centered near 27N83W is
supporting moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate
seas elsewhere ahead of the front.
For the forecast, from late tonight through Sat, the entire
front across the northern Gulf will lift northward as a warm
front. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the Gulf from
the east. Winds will pulse to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula
in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold
front might move into the northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach
from central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late Mon,
followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressure in
the deep tropics result in fresh easterly trade winds over the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean, except for strong to
near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, including
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore
Belize. Seas basin-wide are moderate, except rough with the
strong to near gales offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean and relatively lower
pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to
strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central
Caribbean through midweek next week, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. During the nighttime hours tonight through Sun night,
these winds are expected to reach gale- force off NW Colombia.
Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are
also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night.
Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the
eastern and central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda to NE
Florida. A few showers linger near the boundary. Over the E
subtropical Atlantic, the tail of a cold front weakens across the
Canary Islands to about 29N34W. The remainder subtropical waters
are under the influence of a broad ridge with a 1018 mb center SE
of Bermuda near 28N59W. Winds with these features are moderate or
weaker, except for fresh W to NW winds N of the Canary Islands and
NNE winds of the same magnitude between the Cape Verde Islands
and W Africa. Seas are slight near the Bahamas and moderate
elsewhere, except rough to 10 ft near the Canary Islands due to
the passage of the front.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
weaken through Sat as the cold front portion north of our area
shifts eastward. A stronger cold front is expected to follow a
similar path Mon through Tue, followed by fresh to strong winds
and rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly
strong to marginally severe, are possible near both fronts.
Meanwhile, a 1018 mb high over the western Atlantic near 27N62W
will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola
Sat through Mon.
$$
Ramos
