000
AXNT20 KNHC 250849
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N25W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 02N to 05N between 12W and 20W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to Leeville,
Louisiana. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas to 3 ft follow
the front over the Florida Big Bend area. Fresh NE winds and seas
to 5 ft are noted off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle breezes and 2-4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant
convection is noted across the basin.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate later today,
while weak high pressure will move over the northeast Gulf tonight
through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate
to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan
Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking
ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat
morning and reach from south Florida to northeast Mexico by Sun
morning, and southeast of the basin Sun night. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern
Gulf Sat night through Sun night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the northwest
Caribbean between Grand Cayman Island and Swan Island, southeast
of an upper trough over the Gulf of America. An associated surface
trough extended along the coast of Honduras. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds north of
this trough. The same pass showed fresh winds south of Cuba and
Hispaniola. Although not captured by the pass, it is likely fresh
to strong NE winds are active off Colombia at this time. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
northwest Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western
Atlantic through Fri night, maintaining fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas offshore of Colombia tonight and persist,
mainly at night. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong
cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend,
supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas across
northern Caribbean to include the Windward Passage.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N63W to Vero Beach, Florida. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE
winds north of the front. Concurrent altimeter satellite data
showed combined seas of 8-13 ft this past evening, although this
may have subsided in the past several hours to 7-11 ft. The
remainder of the area west of 55W is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas.
In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1011 mb low is nearly
stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing fresh to strong
N-NE winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere,
moderate trades and moderate to occasionally rough seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
extends from 31N63W to Vero Beach, Florida. Fresh winds and rough
seas north of front will subside through tonight as the front
dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late
Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front
will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida early Sat,
and reach from 31N62W to Miami by Sun morning. Strong to near-
gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will dominate all
waters north of the front through Sun night.
$$
Christensen
