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000
AXNT20 KNHC 200535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front is along 31N81W to 29N81W. Expect S-to-SW gale- force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 28N between 76W and the cold front. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to the Equator along 23W, to 04S30W, to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 18W and 22W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 32W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 24W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the southernmost parts of South Carolina, to 30N81W, across Florida to 26N82W along the SW coast of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond NW Cuba, to the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A squall line is within 100 nm to the east of the cold front, from the Florida Keys northward. Virtually all the precipitation that was occurring with the cold front is outside the area of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that some rainshowers may be lingering in the extreme eastern and southeastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air cumulus clouds are following the cold front.

A surface ridge extends from a 1017 mb central Texas high pressure center to a 1018 mb Gulf of Mexico high pressure center that is near 23N93W.

The current cold front will exit from the basin tonight, with strong rainshowers and thunder ahead of it. A tight surface pressure gradient, that is in the wake of the front in the northern and central Gulf of Mexico, will diminish through early Saturday. A weak reinforcing boundary will clip the NE Gulf of Mexico behind the first front. Weak high pressure will build in the Gulf of Mexico, from Sunday through Wednesday, promoting more tranquil marine conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through Florida to 26N82W along the SW coast of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond NW Cuba, to the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and touching the border area of Mexico and northern Guatemala. A squall line is within 100 nm to the east of the cold front, from the Florida Keys northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover parts of Central America and the Caribbean Sea from NW Nicaragua to 18N near the Gulf of Honduras between 85W and 89W.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough passing through NW Cuba to northern Costa Rica. The GFS model for the surface shows a broad trough along roughly the same position.

The current cold front, extending from the western tip of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula near the Belize/Mexico border with strong thunderstorms ahead of it, will push to the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday, before dissipating on Sunday. High pressure near Bermuda is supporting generally moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic Ocean, with the exception of strong NE winds N of Colombia. The high pressure will weaken during the next few days, causing the trade winds to diminish through Wednesday night. No significant long-period swell is anticipated to reach the tropical North Atlantic Ocean zones through at least Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the southernmost parts of South Carolina, to 30N81W, across Florida to 26N82W along the SW coast of Florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond NW Cuba, to the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. A squall line is within 100 nm to the east of the cold front, from the Florida Keys northward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the east of the squall line, from 25N northward. This front is the same cold front that is associated with the gale- force winds that are the subject of the SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean, passing through 32N37W to 29N40W to 25N45W to 24N52W. The front is stationary from 24N52W to 25N62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front between 52W and 60W, and within 120 nm to the east of the cold front from 30N northward.

A tight surface pressure gradient, ahead of a vigorous and strong cold front that is entering the offshore waters off NE Florida, is supporting southerly gale force winds in the northern waters. The front will continue eastward tonight, and the gale force winds will push more to the E through Saturday, before diminishing on Saturday afternoon. The cold front should extend from 31N74W to the central Bahamas on Saturday afternoon, from 31N71W to the SE Bahamas on Sunday afternoon, and become stationary near the same location on Monday afternoon, and finally dissipate from Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous rainshowers, including thunder, will accompany the front. There is potential for severe thunderstorms, associated with the front, N of 27N tonight and on Saturday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ mt

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