000
AXNT20 KNHC 252300
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Mar 26 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 01N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N21W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection S of
05N E of 40W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A weakening stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida, to
Leeville, Louisiana. Moderate E winds and moderate seas are N of
the front. Similar conditions are in the Bay of Campeche.
Elsewhere, gentle breezes and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, the front will dissipate later today. A weak
high pressure will move from the SE of the United States to the
northeast Gulf on Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will
support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the
forecast period. The next cold front will move into the northern
Gulf Sat morning, reach the SE Gulf by Sun morning, and move
southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat
night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong
enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the SE Gulf
and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from 15N80W to 19N85W. Scattered moderate
convection is between this trough, the Cayman Islands, and
Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also present in
region. Aside from the far SW basin, where like to gentle winds
prevail, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the
majority of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia tonight through Sat
night. High pressure will follow a strong cold front moving
through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun through
likely Wed.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N64W to near Stuart, Florida.
Scattered moderate convection has developed along this boundary N
of the Bahamas. N of the boundary, fresh NE to E winds and rough
seas are present.
For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient
is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the
far eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is S of the Canary
Islands. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are N and W
of the low center, impacting waters N of 24N and E of 25W.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas north of front will diminish through tonight as the front
dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late
Fri across the region. The next strong cold front will move into
the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach
from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to
SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will follow the front.
$$
ERA
