000
AXNT20 KNHC 112054
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue May 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been repositioned
to 28W, from 01S to 09N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any
nearby convection is described below in the monsoon trough/ITCZ
section.
A tropical wave has its axis near 59.5W S of 14N to near Barbados
and across portions of Guyana, moving westward at around 10-15
kt. The wave is supporting moderate convection over portions of
eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana, with any
offshore nearby convection is described below in the monsoon
trough/ITCZ section.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends
from 02S31W to off the coast of Brazil at 00N48W. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from the Equator to 07N between roughly 19W and 51W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak cold front extends from 1015 mb low pressure along the
S-central coast of Louisiana to across the NW Gulf to 1016 mb low
pressure offshore Texas at 27.5N95W to near the border with
Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from the Florida
Panhandle offshore to near 26N93W. These features support
scattered moderate convection N of 24N within about 240 nm ahead
of the front. Mainly moderate N-NE winds and 2-4 ft seas are found
W of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly 1-3 ft seas
dominate the remainder of the basin, except locally to 4 ft W-NW
of the Yucatan Peninsula due to some earlier winds. A surface
trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche
from 23N91.5W to 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 20N to 23N to the W of 95W.
For the forecast, a weak cold front currently over the NW Gulf
will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of
Florida to the Bay of Campeche tomorrow morning, then stall and
dissipate by Wed. Winds are generally moderate or weaker on either
wide of the front, though showers and thunderstorms will continue
today and tonight along the front. High pressure and quiescent
conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another
weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate
over the E Gulf on Fri.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea, except
for some convection near and over Panama due to the extension of
the Pacific monsoon trough along about 10N. The subtropical ridge
over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across
the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7
ft seas, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores
High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to
force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean
for the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are
forecast across the remainder of forecast waters. Large E swell
will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into
the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of
America result in isolated to widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of
50W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 25N. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere, except for
rough seas N of 27N between 17W and 30W in northerly swells.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will reach the
waters off of NE Florida early tomorrow morning, extend along 30N
and becoming stationary Wed morning, then lifting north of our
waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh
or weaker on either wide of the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should occur along the front. Additionally, trades
just north of Hispaniola will pulse fresh to strong tonight and
Tue night. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the
Atlantic from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W
to 25N72W Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on
Sat morning. S winds ahead of the front north of 28N will be fresh
to strong.
$$
Lewitsky
