650
AXNT20 KNHC 042356
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jul 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Three:
Tropical Depression Three is centered near 30.8N 79.0W at 04/0000
UTC or 130 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina, moving N at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring north of 29N between 76W and 80W.
The depression has recently been stationary, but is forecast to
move toward the north near 2 mph later this evening. A slow motion
toward the north-northwest is then expected on Saturday, followed
by a motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move
near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Three
will move to 31.3N 79.1W Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical
storm near 31.7N 79.5W Sat afternoon, 32.4N 80.0W Sun morning,
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.7N 80.0W
Sun afternoon, inland to 35.0N 79.6W Mon morning, and dissipate
Mon afternoon.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details. Please refer to wwww.hurricanes.gov for more
details.
Gale Warning E of 35W:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system
located NE of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will
support gale-force northeast winds with severe gusts close and
between the Canary Islands until at least 06/00 UTC according to
Meteo France. Seas will be moderate to rough, peaking around 10
ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility may be reduced to
moderate or poor due to sand haze, especially in the far E part.
For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from
06N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A weak 1012 mb low is
along the wave axis near 19N. This wave remains surrounded by a
dry and stable atmospheric environment. Only scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave
from 08N to 10N.
An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38.5W from
04N to 16N. It is moving westward around 5 kt. A dry and stable
atmospheric environment also surrounds this wave. Only isolated
showers are near its southern part.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis is along 67W
south of 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is
positioned to the southeast of a broad upper-level trough that
reaches from the central Atlantic to the central Caribbean. Upper-
level divergence is helping to sustain an area of scattered
moderate convection from 15N to 17N within 200 NM west of the
wave. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of
15N between 65W and 70W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86.5W south
of 19N to inland Central America and reaching farther south to
the eastern Pacific near 05N. No significant convection is
occurring over the water near this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and
continues westward through a weak 1012 mb low near 19N26W and
southwestward 07N43W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near
05N51W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, no
significant convection is occurring near these features.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A trough extends from central Florida to 29N90W just off the coast
of southeastern Louisiana, while a weak 1018 mb high is noted
over the central Gulf, and dominates the remainder of the basin.
This synoptic set-up is supporting light to gentle west to
northwest winds east of 90W and gentle to moderate southeast to
south winds west of 90W. Seas of 3 ft or less are across the
basin, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the west-
central Gulf waters.
For the forecast, a surface trough will prevail across the NE
Gulf through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop along this trough over the waters near
Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next
week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next
week as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward
over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please
see the Tropical Wave section for more details.
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure
and low pressure in Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong
trades over most of the central part of the basin. Seas over
these waters are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere
east of about 80W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the
exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras
late Sat through Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W. Please see the Special
Features section for more details. Two tropical waves are moving
across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave
section for more information.
Unsettled weather conditions continue across the waters just E of
Florida and the NW Bahamas as Tropical Depression Three drifts
northward. A broad swath of fresh to near-gale south to southwest
winds are located to the east and southeast of the low pressure,
namely N of 28N between 75W and 81W. Seas over these waters are 4
to 6 ft, but may be higher in and near convection. Moderate to
locally fresh east to southeast winds are S of 28N between 55W and
78W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 5 ft. Farther E, a trough is
analyzed from near 27N63W to 20N68W. This feature is under a
broad upper-level trough that is helping to initiate widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 30N
between 60W and 69W. To the NE of this area of convection, a
trough extends from near 31N40W to 27N47W.
The remainder of the Atlantic domain is under the influence of a
strong 1035 mb high pressure system located NE of the Azores. The
present pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures
over the NW Africa is allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds
north of about 20N and east of 31W, including between the Canary
Islands, where winds are reaching minimal gale force, and along
coastal Western Sahara. Rough seas are associated with these
winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Three
will move to 31.3N 79.1W Sat morning, strengthen to a tropical
storm near 31.7N 79.5W Sat afternoon, 32.4N 80.0W Sun morning,
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.7N 80.0W
Sun afternoon, inland to 35.0N 79.6W Mon morning, and dissipate
Mon afternoon. The main impacts of Three will remain north of
31N. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. This pattern will
support generally gentle to moderate winds except for fresh to
strong winds pulsing off the northern coast of Hispaniola by Sat
night.
$$
ADAMS
