000
AXNT20 KNHC 162252
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau just south of Bissau and extends south-southwestward
to 05N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to south
of the Equator at 43W and to near the Amazon Delta region. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
19W-23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high near the
Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to
fresh southeast winds and along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present in the eastern Bay of Campeche and extending northward
to near 24N. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft are over the rest of the basin, except for slightly
lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southeastern part of the Gulf.
For the forecast a ridge across the northern Gulf will remain in
place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will
allow fresh to strong winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building
seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat
night through the early part of the week. The front will stall
from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then
dissipate through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid to upper-level low dropping southward over the north-
central Dominican Republic is helping to sustain scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic
and ABC Islands as well as over sections of the northeastern
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. A surface trough extends from
the western Atlantic to the east-central interior of Haiti.
Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is present across most of
the sea. Moderate to locally fresh east- northeast to east-
southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the lee of
Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near the ABC Islands. Latest
scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate east-southeast
to southeast winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are about
2 to 4 ft with these winds.
For the west of 95N, the aforementioned mid to upper-level low
is expected to become absorbed into a trough by early on Fri
as the trough shifts eastward toward the northeastern Caribbean
Sat. The surface trough will disrupt the typical pressure
pattern across the basin during this time. Expect fresh trade
winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia overnight, then
mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected there during the
remainder of the week. Winds and seas will generally diminish
across the basin as the trough passes north of the area Fri
through the weekend. Looking ahead, expect fresh northeast
winds early next week across the Windward Passage associated
with a late-season cold front moving into Cuba.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A mid to upper-level trough curves southwestward from southeast
of Bermuda through 24N60W to mid to upper-level low over the
north-central Dominican Republic and southwestward to near the
northwest portion of Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 22N between 67W and 71W and
from 22N to 24N between 65W and 69W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in
the Atlantic Basin.
A 1023 mb high center is analyzed north of the area at 34N68W
while a 1025 mb high center is just north of the area at 32N49W.
High pressure continues to dominate the wind flow pattern
across the basin, generally north of about 18N and east of
the Lesser Antilles and also north of 21N west of 61W. The
related gradient is providing for light to gentle winds north of
26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas are
4 to 6 ft over these areas. Farther south from 20N to 26N between
35W and the Bahamas, gentle to moderate northeast to east winds
are present along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft mainly in east
swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
A few weak troughs are analyzed over the basin, however, no
deep convection is presently occurring with these features.
For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough
will drift west toward the Turks and Caicos Islands today,
remain nearly stationary through Fri while gradually weakening,
then drift farther westward and dissipate through the weekend.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate to locally rough
seas will persist west of the trough across the southeast Bahamas
through this morning, with conditions gradually improving
thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will build into
the area from the east following the trough. Looking ahead, a
cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida
Sun night. Expect fresh to strong north to northeast winds and
building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda
to the Florida Straits by late Mon.
$$
Aguirre
