000
AXNT20 KNHC 021628
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from northern
Florida to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near-gale
force NE to N winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, encompass
the north-central and western Gulf waters behind the cold front.
Satellite altimeter and moored buoy data indicates seas ranging
from 8-11 ft. Sustained gale force winds are currently offshore
Tampico, Mexico, and will spread southward to offshore Veracruz
today, then persist off of Veracruz into Sun morning. Seas will
build to 12 ft in strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve
by early Mon with ridging gradually building back over the basin
into early Tue.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details,
and also consult products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for details over the coastal waters.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 33W, from 12N southward, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern tip
of the wave axis, from 01N to 04N between 29W and 33W. Elsewhere,
the wave continues to move through hostile dry conditions which
inhibit other impacts.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N18W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 05S to the equator between 30W and 40W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a Gale Warning for the western Gulf.
As referenced above, a cold front extends from northern Florida
to near Tampico, Mexico, with fresh to strong winds and frequent
gusts to gale-force behind it. Scattered moderate convection is
along the front, from 26N to 30N east of 87W. Outside of the gale
warning, seas range from 5-7 ft behind the front. Ahead of the
front, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, the cold front from the Big Bend of Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico will reach from SW Florida to the Bay of
Campeche Sun morning, then stall and gradually wash out by Mon
morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue behind the
front, along with near gale to gale-force N winds close to the
coast near Tampico. The gales will slide along the coast near
Veracruz today and tonight, before diminishing Sun afternoon. Mon
and Tue should see quiescent conditions prevailing across the
Gulf. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will
set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure in the
Atlantic near 26N62W and a 1008 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the south-central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia and within the Gulf of
Venezuela. Seas are 6-7 ft in these areas. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trades prevail across the basin per the latest satellite
scatterometer data. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is across the southwestern
Caribbean, south of 12N, between 75W and 84W. This includes
coastal regions of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to
strong trades over the S central Caribbean and moderate to fresh
trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the
next several days. The SE fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras will diminish on Sun as a weakening cold front approaches
the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the
Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras
to increase Tue and Wed.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weakening frontal boundary from 31N56W to 31N70W continues to
lose definition and shower activity. 1019 mb high pressure
centered near 26N62W and 1021 mb high pressure centered north of
the Canary Islands provide for broad surface ridging across the
tropical Atlantic waters. Satellite scatterometer detected light
to gentle trade winds across the basin, increasing to moderate
speeds south of 10N. Satellite altimeter supports an analysis of
4-7 ft seas across open waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
from near 31N56W to 29N65W to 31N71W will weaken and shift
slightly east today. A new, stronger cold front will emerge off of
the SE United States coast this afternoon and reach from near
31N72W to the N Bahamas on Sun morning, and from 31N60W to a low
forming near the N Bahamas Mon morning. The low will ride along
the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with
the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The
front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong
SW winds south of the front today and Sun, followed by fresh to
strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and Tue. Looking ahead,
conditions should become quiescent Tue night into Wed.
$$
Mahoney
