000
AXNT20 KNHC 291652
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1652 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and
continues south-southwestward to 00N33W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues to 02S43W. Numerous scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 01N to 07N and west of 16W. Isolated
moderate convection is found along both the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic and the
associated reach extends to the central Gulf. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and low pressure in central
Mexico is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast winds over most
of the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf.
Light to gentle southeast to south winds are elsewhere across the
basin along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern
Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western
Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generally
maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the
basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf
through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while
mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough
will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during
the evenings and at night through Fri. A weak cold front will
move into the far northern Gulf Thu and stall Thu night into Fri.
A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast
late Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the
Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the
Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to
strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force
offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build
to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the
gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to
precede the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia
and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin
along seas of 2 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night and diminishing on Sun. A weakening cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N55W to near 25N69W. A warm front
extends from 31N49W to 26N49W. Moderate to fresh NW winds
and 6 to 10 ft seas in N swell follow the front. Recent
scatterometer data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh SW
to S winds near the warm front. Seas within these winds are 5 to
8 ft. An upper level trough to the east of the fronts is
supporting scattered showers north of 24N and between 37W and 47W.
Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere west
of 55W. Farther east, a front reaches from east of the eastern
Azores to 31N24W to 20.5N40W. Moderate NW winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas in NW swell follow these front. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E
trade winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted south of 19N, and light
to gentle breezes with 4 to 6 ft seas noted north of 19N.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N55W
to near 25N69W will shift E of 55W late this afternoon. Another
cold front will move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken
as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri
afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening. A third cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach
from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early on Sun and
stall into Sun night. Low pressure is expected to move along the
front at that time.
$$
KRV
