AXNT20 KNHC 150557

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

As of 15/0300 UTC, a cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico from Tampa Florida to 27N85W to beyond the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W. Expect gale force NW to N winds S of 20N and W of 94W. Winds are forecast to weaken to below gale force shortly on 15/0600 UTC. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.


A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 15N southward to NW Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of northern Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 05N30W to 03N44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 09W-14W, and from 03N-09N between 25W-44W.


A cold front is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and gale force winds are located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features Section above for more details. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Overcast multilayered clouds are over most of the the Gulf of Mexico due to a strong upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. The far NW Gulf now has mostly fair weather.

The current cold front will pass to the SE of the Gulf midday Thu, with winds and seas gradually decreasing behind the exiting front. High pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front and prevail through the weekend.


A surface trough extends from 24N69W to the eastern Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean near 16N70W. Scattered moderate convection is located near and over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the adjacent waters of the Caribbean north of 17N between 64W-73W.

In the SW Caribbean, widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 76W-82W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

High pressure across the NW Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean. E swell will maintain seas 8 ft or above for tropical N Atlantic through the end of the week. Strong N winds and building seas will follow a cold front entering the Yucatan Channel. Fresh N winds and seas to 10 ft will spread across the NW Caribbean behind the front Thu and Thu night, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.


A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N66W to 31N70W. A stationary front continues from 31N70W to Jacksonville Florida near 30N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.

The surface trough that extends from 24N69W to the eastern Dominican Republic is producing scattered moderate convection south of 24N between 65W-73W. Further E, a 1025 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 29N49W.

High pressure over the NW Atlc will shift ESE ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast. The front will reach from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile, a trough over the eastern Dominican Republic extending NNE into the adjacent Atlantic will move over to the SE Bahamas by late Thu. The trough will reside over the Bahamas near 75W early Fri, then lose identity by the time the cold front reaches a position from Bermuda to eastern Cuba on Sat.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa