000
AXNT20 KNHC 122324
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N53W to the
central Bahamas where it becomes a stationary front crossing the
Straits of Florida. The most recent scatterometer data indicate
strong to gale force SW winds N of 27N and E of the front to
about 48W while fresh to strong W to NW winds follow the front N
of 27N to about 70W. Rough to very rough seas are associated
with this system, peaking 20 ft along 31N. Seas in excess of 12
ft dominate the waters N of 27N and E of 70W. Seas 8 ft or
greater cover most of the waters E of 60W, and N of 25N between
60W and 74W. The cold front will continue to move southeast
through this evening, before stalling along roughly 21N late
tonight into Mon and dissipating Tue. Winds will diminish below
gale force, ahead of the front, by tonight. Then, winds will
decrease from W to E W of 55W as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic, in the wake of the front, on Mon. The swell
event will gradually subside west of 60W through late Tue.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia and continues westward to near 06N15W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N15W to 05N25W to the equator at 38W. No significant
convection is noted.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front crosses the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf
reaching the central Gulf near 25N90W, then continues as a warm
front to a weak 1013 mb low pressure located just off Corpus
Christi. A surface trough runs from the low center to inland in
central Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring near this boundary.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted per scatterometer data
in the wake of the stationary front. Moderate to locally fresh E
to SE winds dominate most of the western half the Gulf region.
Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf
where a ridge is noted associated with a 1022 mb high pressure
situated over N Florida.
For the forecast, the low pressure off the coast of Texas will
lift northeast through the early part of the week, dragging a
cold front into southern Gulf through Tue night. Fresh to strong
wind and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, possibly
reaching near-gale force off the coast of Veracruz Mon night. The
front will stall and become diffuse over the southern Gulf through
mid-week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Thu as
high pressure builds over the northern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure of 1022 mb located over N Florida extends a ridge
across the western Atlantic, the Bhamas and Cuba while the
Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. A weakening stationary
front is producing some shower activity across the central
Lesser Antilles, particularly between Martinique and Guadeloupe.
A patch of low level clouds with possible showers extends from
the Cayman Islands to northern Belize. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present in the south-central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 30 kt near the coast of
Colombia. Mainly gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere, with the exception of seas in the 1 to 3 ft
range in the lee of the Greater Antilles, and in the Gulf of
Honduras.
For the forecast, large, long-period northerly swell moving
through the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and
the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will
subside late tonight through early Mon. Meanwhile, high pressure
building across the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds over the eastern and south-central Caribbean,
with strong winds pulsing off Colombia through the middle of next
week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning, and a significant swell event are associated
with a cold front that extends from 31N53W to the central
Bahamas. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more
information.
To the E of the cold front, a stationary front stretches from
31N30W to the central Lesser Antilles. A few showers are along
the frontal boundary, especially near the islands. The remainder
of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a 1032 mb high
pressure located W of Portugal. A band of light a variable winds
is observed roughly from 17N to 23N between 40W and 74W under
the influence of the above mentioned ridges. Gentle to moderate
winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic as well as
the waters between the W coast of Africa and the aforementioned
stationary front. E of 35W, seas are generally 6 to 8 ft, except
8 to 13 ft w of a line from 31N24w to 20N32W due to the swell
event perviously mentioned that is propagating eastward.
For the forecast W of 55W, a reinforcing cold front will move
into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and reach from Bermuda
to South Florida Wed, before stalling along 22N through Thu.
Another round of large, long-period NW to N swell will follow
the reinforcing front over the waters east of 75W Thu, and shift
to east of 65W by late Fri.
$$
GR
