936
AXNT20 KNHC 261744
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 25W,
from 16N southward, moving west at 10 kt. No significant
convection is evident near this wave.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48.5W, from 20N
southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 15N to 17N between 49W and
51W.
A tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles and currently
along 62W, from 20N southward. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen from 12N to 18N between 55W and 65W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 20N southward, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is observed with
this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends to
07N25W, and then to 10N37W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 08.5N50W to
10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N
between the coast of Africa and 17W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are analyzed from 06N to 11N between 30W
and 35W.
The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen in the far SW Caribbean generally S of
14N and W of 78W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An upper trough extends across the western Gulf, supporting
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Gulf W of 90W. High pressure off the east coast of Florida in the
western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the
Straits of Florida, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas are also occurring over the Bay of Campeche.
Light to gentle E to SE breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas persist
elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the middle of next week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate
breezes and slight to moderate seas. The exception will be
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A strong pressure gradient forced by a 1008 mb low over
northern Colombia and high pressure in the Atlantic is leading to
fresh to strong trade winds over the central to SW Caribbean,
through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 8 to
11 ft are found in the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are also found across the eastern and west-central
through northwestern basin with seas of 5 to 8 ft ft. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is occurring along the coasts of
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to strong northeast
winds in the Windward Passage are expected to diminish early Sun.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough over the central and northern Atlantic is
expanding into the tropical Atlantic waters. A stationary front
is analyzed N of the area, with a trough extending along 30N from
a 1016 mb surface low near 31N59W. Another trough is analyzed from
31N52W to 28N60W to 28N68W. This results in scattered moderate
convection along the second trough from 27N to 31N between 52W
and 62W. More scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen from 25N to 30N between 68W and 73W.
The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming
from the 1031 mb Azores high. Recent scatterometer data indicate
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft N of 25N between 20W
and 36W. An area of moderate to fresh trades is also occurring
from 13N to 21N between 40W and 55W, with seas of 5-7 ft in this
region. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft are ongoing
along the northern shores of the Greater Antilles and through the
Florida Straits. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh winds
north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage
through Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with
mostly moderate seas are expected.
$$
Adams
