000
AXNT20 KNHC 271737
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jul 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 35W,
south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 05-10N between 32-39W.
A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near 57W, south of
22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near
the north end of the wave axis.
A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean near 68W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 14-19N between 64-70W.
A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean near 83W, south of
20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated
strong convection is active off the coast of Panama from 08N to
11N between 75W and 80W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 06N38W. The
ITCZ is analyzed from 06N38W to 07N54W. In addition to the
convection described above in the Tropical Wave section,
scattered moderate convection is evident from 07-13N between the
coast of Africa and 26W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergence aloft and a surface trough in the SW Gulf continue to
support scattered showers over the western half of the Gulf of
America, while the eastern half is under a weak surface ridge that
promotes generally dry conditions. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass captured moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
over the western half of the Gulf and the SE waters, including the
Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will
develop off the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening
through Mon night as a trough develops inland daily and shifts
westward over the Bay of Campeche overnight. Elsewhere, high
pressure will dominate the basin through the middle of next week,
supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough extending across Hispaniola is leading to
scattered moderate convection over the central Caribbean between
70-76W and N of 14N. A ridge over the SE United States is forcing
fresh to strong easterly winds over the central Caribbean, the
Windward Passage, and the lee of Cuba, per recent scatterometer
data. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across
the remainder of the Caribbean waters, where seas are 3-6 ft.
Convection is described in the Tropical Waves section above.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds
and rough seas over the central Caribbean. Strong winds will
pulse off Colombia by mid week as the high pressure builds north
of the area. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail
elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak 1016 mb surface low is centered near 29N70W, with three
troughs extending from the center. One trough runs along 29-30N,
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms seen along this
trough between 48-66W. A surface ridge extends from 1030 mb high
pressure near the Azores to the central Atlantic near 25N50W. A
weak trough is analyzed from 27N28W to 21N35W. A recent
scatterometer pass captured moderate to fresh E winds in an area
from 14-21N between 45-57W, with seas of 5-7 ft in this region.
Moderate to fresh SE winds and 4-7 ft seas are seen across the
tropical Atlantic S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. The remainder
of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas
of 3-6 ft prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh winds
north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage
through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with
mostly moderate seas are expected.
$$
Adams
