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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures in the western Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting winds reaching gale-force strength from 10N to 13.5N between 73W and 77.5W. Wave heights within the area of gale-force winds will range from 10 feet to 16 feet. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, crossing the Equator along 22W, to 02N30W, to 01S38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 01N to the coast of Africa between 04W and 07W, and from 02N southward between 47W and 49W. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N southward between 16W and 21W, and from 02N southward between 40W and 42W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of the line 23N16W 20N30W 18N40W 14N50W 11N58W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving from southern Mexico, across Texas and Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico that is from 92W westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in Mexico from 20N to 22N between the coast and 99W, and in Texas from 30N southward, and mainly in the middle Texas coastal plains at the moment.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, southwestward, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.

Strong surface high pressure across the W Atlantic Ocean will persist, with a ridge extending W across the U.S.A. Gulf coast states, in order to produce fresh return flow across most of the basin, except for strong winds through the Straits of Florida and across central sections of the Gulf. A weak cold front will move slowly into the far NW waters on Sunday, and stall there on Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

A surface ridge passes across central Cuba, to 19N82W in the NW corner of the area, to southern Costa Rica.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.50 in Guadeloupe, and 0.05 in Curacao.

Surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will build S across the region through Wednesday, and then settle across the Bermuda area through the end of the week. Fresh-to-strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Thursday, with nocturnal winds pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia. High pressure will weaken through the weekend, leading to diminishing winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N34W to 28N36W 24N48W, to 19N60W. A cold front passes through 32N30W, to 23N40W and 21N53W. A dissipating cold front continues from 21N53W to 21N62W. Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW and N of the line that passes through 32N27W 22N40W 18N60W 18N68W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N68W, beyond central Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A W Atlantic Ocean ridge will persist along 33N-34N through Thursday, and then it will drift SW, and slowly weaken through the weekend. Gentle-to-moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, with fresh-to-strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell will move through the waters E of 65W through Friday night.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ mt

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