000
AXNT20 KNHC 070809
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force until around sunrise tonight, and then again
during the overnight hours tonight. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are
expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W, then extends southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W to 01N35W to the coast of Brazil near
02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N
between 25W and 38W, and also S of 05N and W of 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with
moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the
Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. A few
showers are developing over the far western Gulf.
For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward
from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek next
week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure
over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds
basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and strong near the northern
Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker
winds overall in the NE Gulf. A cold front may impact the NW Gulf
Wed night. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.
An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean,
with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are across the east and central
Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras, and also through the Windward
Passage. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the central to SW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere across the basin. A surface trough near Puerto Rico is
helping to enhance shower activity in the vicinity.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during
the overnight hours tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will
pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Sun
night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade-
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough analyzed over Puerto Rico is helping to generate
scattered showers between the northern end of the trough axis and
the Turks and Caicos Islands. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the
Atlantic forecast region, with a 1028 mb high pressure located
just SE of Bermuda, and also a 1028 mb high pressure situated ESE
of the Azores. Under the influence of this ridge, strong to near-
gale-force NE winds and very rough seas are observed N of 20N and
E of 22W, including the Canary Islands, with the strongest winds
of 25 to 30 kt between the Canary Islands and the coast of
Morocco. Fresh to locally strong trades are blowing S of 25N and W
of 50W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are 7 to 10
ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere S of
26N, along with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through Mon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold
front.
$$
Lewitsky
