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000
AXNT20 KNHC 232339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 998 mb low pressure system located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 26N 24W is producing gale-force-winds, mainly to the west of the center. This system is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms within 240 nmi east of the center. Another area of associated thunderstorms is over the Canary Islands from 24N to 30N between 14W and 19W aided by diffluent flow aloft. This low is expected to weaken as it moves southeastward and then eastward during the next 24 hours. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 8N13W and continues southwestward to 4N20W and then to 1N32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 1N to 6N between 13W and 22W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Generally fair weather prevails across the Gulf of Mexico today with only patches of clouds moving across the area. The clouds are most organized over the north-central waters north of 27N between 86W and 90W, where a few showers are occurring. A stationary front is located along the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico, but this feature is not producing any significant weather at the moment. Winds are mostly light to moderate out of the east and southeast across the area, and seas are up to 6 feet in some locations.

No significant changes are expected across the Gulf this weekend. Another front is expected to move over the northwestern waters on Sunday, but this feature is forecast to stall and weaken shortly thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair conditions are also common across the Caribbean Sea today. Visible satellite images show patches of low-level clouds across the area moving within the trade wind flow. Slightly more organized cloud streamers are moving across the Windward Islands, where scattered showers are likely embedded. Although there is some shower activity across the region, abundant dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere is expected to limit significant thunderstorms from developing. Winds have dropped below gale force near the coast of Colombia this morning, but they are still around 30 kt there. Elsewhere, the trade winds are generally in the 20-30 kt range, except lighter over the northwestern waters. Seas are highest near the coast of Colombia, up to 14 ft, and a large area of seas 8 ft and higher are occurring east of about 82W.

Looking ahead to the weekend, winds and seas are expected to gradually lessen as the high pressure system to the north of the area weakens in place.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Besides for the low pressure system discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above, generally tranquil weather conditions are occurring across the Atlantic. Strong surface high pressure centered near Bermuda and dry air in the mid and upper-levels are supporting fair weather and moderate to fresh winds across the subtropical west and central Atlantic waters today. Over the deep tropics, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring south of 5N between 41W and 51W. This activity is associated with a surface trough and a diffluent upper-level pattern.

The low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to move eastward and weaken during the next 24 hours, but a cold front is expected to move into the same region bringing another round of strong winds. Little change is expected over the central and western Atlantic waters during the next day or two as the high pressure sysetm remains stationary and weakens.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/GR

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