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000
AXNT20 KNHC 141709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 21N southward, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 18N between 22W and 27W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 63W/64W from 22N southward to northern Venezuela, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A surface trough is north of the tropical wave from 22N61W to 28N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the eastern Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 61W and 66W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave and the surface trough from 17N to 28N between 52W and 62W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from 17N southward to Venezuela near 12N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 68W and 71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 86W from 20N southward to central Honduras, moving W at 15 kt. There is no significant convection noted at this time.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to a 1010 mb low near 17N21W to 11N29W to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 19W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface low inland near Corpus Christi has a trough along it across the Texas coast. This system is producing numerous moderate to strong convection across the western Gulf from 22N to 29N and W of 94W. Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds are noted off the Texas coast with seas up to 6 ft off the Corpus Christi coast. Surface and radar observations indicate that the circulation has become a little better defined, however the center is expected to move inland over southern Texas and further significant development is not anticipated. Regardless of development, heavy rains are forecast across southern Texas through Monday, which could cause localized areas of flash flooding. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. This system has a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours and 5 days.

Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is moving southward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 27N to 30N between 83W and 89W. These storms have frequent lightning and potentially gusty winds. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the central and eastern Gulf with seas 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front is expected to stall along the northern Gulf coasts from southeast Louisiana to northern Florida through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated thunderstorms are noted across the NW Caribbean with light winds and seas 1-2 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough S of 12N between 75W and 79W. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted across the basin with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the central Atlantic SW to the SE Bahamas will gradually weaken through Tue. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave along 61-62W will move westward across the Lesser Antilles today, reach 70W Sun night, move across the central Caribbean Mon through Tue, and across the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. This will yield mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin thought late Mon. High pressure will begin to build in across the region behind the tropical wave Tue through Wed and bring a return to fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is dropping southward across the NE Florida coast, stretching from 31N78W to near Jacksonville, FL near 30N81W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 30N77W to near Melbourne, FL near 28N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the SW N Atlantic from 22N to 31N between 70W and 80W. Gentle northerly winds are noted behind the front with moderate southerly winds ahead of the front and near the trough. Seas are 2-4 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds are noted from 23N northward to the surface high, with gentle to moderate easterly winds across the rest of the basin. Seas range 4-6 ft.

A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high near 25N35W across the central Atlantic to Florida. A trough is noted in the central Atlantic from 22N36W to 30N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N to 31N between 39W and 50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak frontal boundary extends from near the Florida-Georgia border E-NE across the W Atlantic and will drift E-SE and weaken through Mon. Periods of active weather will continue well ahead of the front, N of 28N and W of 68W through tonight. A second frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed and Thu to produce similar weather. High pressure over the central Atlantic extends to the central Bahamas and will weaken through Tue as a broad surface trough associated with a tropical wave moves across the southeast waters and into the SE Bahamas. High pressure will build into the Bahamas Wed through Thu to freshen trade winds S of 24N.

$$

AReinhart

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