014
AXNT20 KNHC 091008
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 9 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis. Its axis
extends along 37W from 02N-12N, moving W at around 10 kt.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave axis has its axis along 57W
S of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 09N between 52W-58W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 07N26W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 06N35W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
06N40W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
to 09N and E of 32W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Atlantic high pressure extends westward to across the central
Gulf. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail west of 90W,
except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula
and over the Bay of Campeche. East of 90W, light to gentle winds
prevail, except for moderate winds over the northeast Gulf.
Slight seas at 3 ft or less are noted east of 90W Gulf, while
moderate seas 3 to 5 ft prevail west of 90W.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge into
the eastern Gulf, building modestly westward into the central
Gulf through the week. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are
expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward, with moderate to fresh SE
winds elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central
Atlantic and lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh
to strong trades over the central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to
8 ft, except 9 to 10 ft seas offshore of NW Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin along with
moderate seas, except for the NW Caribbean where light to gentle
winds prevail.
Scattered moderate to strong convection south of 16N and between
79W and the coast Central America is due to a nearby mid to
upper- level trough.
For the forecast, high pressure N of the region will prevail
through the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades
and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin,
spreading westward through the week, except in the SW Caribbean
where winds will be weaker. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong
near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening hours. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build to rough with
the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by
early Mon, continuing through the week.
Of Note: A potential for significant rain continues into early
next week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast
Honduras as the upper-level trough lingers across the region
maintaining the possibility of unsettled weather to develop
across the area. Computer model guidance differs on the exact
timing and location of the heaviest rainfall at this time. Please
refer to your local meteorological office for more details.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A couple of tropical waves were analyzed across the basin. PLease
refer to the section above for details.
UWM CIMSS SAL analysis suggests Saharan Air and associated
suspended dust dominates the Atlantic trade wind zone south of 21N
from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, the
entire basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge that is
anchored by a 1030 mb high analyzed well north of the area near
37N41W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail south of 21N, from the
Cabo Verde to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are moderate to
rough. Due to the presence of the SAL, no convection is noted
outside that near the ITCZ. West of 55W, moderate trades remain
south of 25N, while anticyclonic winds are occurring within the
ridge axis, becoming moderate to fresh S to SW winds north of 28N
and west of 70W. Moderate seas prevail west of 55W.
For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then
weaken slightly thereafter. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse
each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola, with pulsing
moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N
through the early part of the week until the high weakens. Winds
may briefly increase to fresh to strong off NE Florida Mon night.
$$
ERA
