000
AXNT20 KNHC 221729
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Oct 22 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.4N 73.6W at 22/1500
UTC or 260 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti, moving WNW at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is occurring near and to the east of the center,
generally from 12N to 18N between 70W and 75W. Peak seas to 20 ft
are occurring near the center of Melissa. Some gradual
strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Melissa
could become a hurricane by Friday. A continued slow forward
speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is
expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn back
westward by the end of the week. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti later this week. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to
spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next
couple of days. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of
rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and
eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts
possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday;
however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces
confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and
landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of
rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible through at least Saturday.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W, south
of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W, south
of 18N, moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 12N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 08N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W
to 10N63W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 14N between 15W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends over the northern Gulf from the Florida
Panhandle to Deep South Texas. Recent scatterometer satellite data
show moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are
occurring north of the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough has been
analyzed over the southwestern Gulf, and isolated showers and
thunderstorms are near the trough over east-central Mexico. Weak
ridging over the remainder of the basin is supporting gentle to
moderate E to NE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.
For the forecast, the cold front over the northern Gulf will
shift southward and extend from north central Florida to the Texas
coast this evening, then stall from the Florida Keys to Louisiana
by Fri morning where it will dissipate through Sat. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail through Thu. Winds will increase over
the eastern Gulf the end of the week into the weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens between the building high pressure and
Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
Tropical Storm Melissa.
Impacts from Tropical Storm Melissa dominate the central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, an increasing pressure gradient between
Melissa and building high pressure to the north is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern Caribbean as
observed on recent scatterometer data, and moderate to fresh NE
winds in the lee of Cuba and the northwestern basin. Seas of 4 to
7 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean, with 2 to 4 ft seas west
of 80W.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Melissa is near 14.4N 73.6W, or
about 260 nm south-southwest of Port Au Price Haiti at 11 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Melissa will maintain intensity as it moves to near 14.8N
73.9W this evening, then begin to gradually strengthen as it
moves to near 15.2N 74.3W Thu morning, to near 15.6N 74.4W Thu
evening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near
16.0N 74.4W Fri morning, to near 16.3N 74.6W Fri evening with
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, and strengthen to a
hurricane near 16.5N 74.9W Sat morning with maximum sustained 70
kt gusts 85 kt. Melissa is forecast to move to near 16.6N 75.8W
early Sun with maximum sustained 90 kt gusts 110 kt and to near
16.4N 77.4W early on Mon with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts
130 kt.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough has been analyzed from 31N74W to 28N78W, and a
cold front, currently along the Florida-Georgia border, is
progressing southeastward. Recent scatterometer satellite data
show moderate SW to NW winds are occurring in this region near
these features. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N35W
to 26N46W, and isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring
near the trough. Moderate NW to NE winds are noted near this
feature. Elsewhere, an increasing pressure gradient between a
1024 mb high centered near 35N55.5W and Tropical Storm Melissa is
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
south of 23N. Otherwise, weak ridging dominates the remainder of
the waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N80W
southwestward to inland northern Florida will move southeastward
and stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Fri night. High
pressure building in behind the front will support strong NE to E
winds and rough seas north of the boundary Fri through Sun.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Melissa is moving very slowly across the
central Caribbean Sea. This pattern set up will support fresh
east to southeast winds over the waters south of 22N and west of
70W along with rough seas by Sun near the northern entrance to the
Windward Passage.
$$
ADAMS
