000
AXNT20 KNHC 200856
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Oct 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean gale warning: A tropical wave (AL98) located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles west of the Windward
Islands, is producing a large area of poorly organized showers and
thunderstorms. Fresh to near gale force winds are found N and E
of the wave axis, with frequent gusts to gale force within the
persistent areas of convection. The system is moving quickly
westward at 20 to 25 mph, which should limit significant
development during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with
locally gusty winds to gale force are expected at least the next
24 hours, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas otherwise
accompanying this wave as it moves over the eastern and central
Caribbean this week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the gale warning.
For more information on the possible tropical development of this
system, please see the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W, from 12N
southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between
28W and 31W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, from 10N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 44W and 50W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest AL98) has its axis
near 64W/65W, from 19N southward. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES
section above for more on this wave.
A another tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea has its axis near
74W south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Associated
convection is inland over Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N16W and
extends westward to 12N18W. The ITCZ extends from 12N18W to
09.5N28W. It resumes from 09N33W to 06N43W. Scattered moderate
convection and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N
between 16W and 20W, and within 60 nm N of the ITCZ
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to N Mexico.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are found N of the front. Moderate
winds are over the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.
For the forecast, the front will progress southeastward over the
Gulf through early this week. Moderate N to NE winds are expected
north of the front, with locally fresh winds possible north of 27N
this morning. High pressure will build over the basin in the wake
of this front, leading to gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas over the Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical
wave with an associated gale warning.
Outside of the gale warning discussed above, fresh to strong winds
cover much of the waters E of 67W, with fresh to strong winds
also over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted over the north central Caribbean, and light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range N of 12N
and E of 65W in a mix of northerly swell and SE wind waves. Seas
of 5-8 ft are elsewhere E of 68W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-7
ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-5 ft in the north
central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft over the western Caribbean.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the south-
central basin today. Rough seas in N swell will propagate through
the Atlantic passages today before subsiding. A tropical wave
located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles west
of the Windward Islands, is producing a large area of poorly
organized showers and thunderstorms. The system is moving quickly
westward at 20 to 25 mph, which should limit significant
development during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development
as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with
locally gusty winds to gale force, along with fresh to strong
winds and rough seas will accompany this wave as it moves over the
eastern and central Caribbean this week. There is a low chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
within the next 7 days.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N43W SW to the SE
Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in
the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are found N of
29N E of the front to 35W, and N of 29N W of the front to 55W. The
remainder of the waters N of 20N are dominated by high pressure
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N31W, and a 1021 mb
high centered near 30N66W. The pressure gradient between the high
center near 30N66W and a cold front over the SE United States is
supporting moderate to fresh winds off northern Florida. Moderate
to fresh winds are S of 22N and W of 40W, with gentle to moderate
winds S of 26N and E of 40W. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft cover much of the waters N of 14N
between 40W and 65W. Seas of 6-8 ft are W of 65W, and seas of 4-7
ft prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extending from
23N55W to the SE Bahamas will gradually dissipate today.
Widespread rough seas east of 65W will subside from northwest to
southeast through tonight. A cold front will move off the Florida
coast this morning, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds offshore
of northern Florida briefly W of the front. Otherwise, moderate
to fresh trade winds are expected south of 23N as a strong
tropical wave moves across the Caribbean waters.
$$
AL
