000
AXNT20 KNHC 160441
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident near the
trough axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 05N37W and then from 05N40W to 04N48W.
A few showers are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Divergence aloft associated with an upper level low in the
northern Gulf continues to generate popcorn showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the northern half of the basin. Similar
convection is also noted in the Bay of Campeche. At the surface, a
ridge extends from the central Atlantic into the Gulf waters,
supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft (1-1.5
m) west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough
develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds
and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri
night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are
forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Abundant tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea and the
Gulf of Honduras, also producing heavy rain in Central America.
The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered over central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in the south-
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft (2.5-3.5 m).
The strongest winds and seas are noted off NW Colombia. Fresh to
strong easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of
Honduras.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident
in the north-central, eastern and western Caribbean, especially
south of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire tropical
Atlantic basin, extending a ridge from a 1031 mb high pressure
near France to Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data show
moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 23N and
west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Moderate
to locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are
found east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds are
forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night through the middle of the week as the
Bermuda High builds. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail
offshore of NE Florida through Thu associated with a surface
trough extending along the eastern United States. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere
through the week.
$$
Delgado
