000
AXNT20 KNHC 132105
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 15.2N 41.7W at 13/2100
UTC or 1030 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Max seas are 17 ft.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
from 12N-17N between 38W-42W. A motion toward the northwest with
a gradual slowdown is expected through Tue, followed by a turn
to the north on Tue night. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification is
possible later in the week.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave has emerged off of the coast of West Africa
along 17W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate and isolated
convection is noted from 06N-15N east of 20W.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 12N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 08N-11N between 25N-30N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N-13N between 53W-55W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W and extends to 08N20W to 07N25W to 08N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 11N62W. Convection is described
above in the Tropical Wave section.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from coastal Nicaragua
near 12N84W to 10N76W over coastal Colombia. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 14N west of
80W in the SW Caribbean.
GULF OF AMERICA...
Other than a trough over the southwest Gulf, weak ridging
dominates the basin, supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed at this time.
For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the basin through the work week,
resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
over much of the Gulf. Winds are expected to increase to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Fri
night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds
will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure
over the SE of the United States moves westward into the western
Atlantic.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A vigorous mid-latitude upper-level trough extends from central
Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. A plume of showers
and thunderstorms are active east of the front flowing from the
far southwest Caribbean off Costa Rica and western Panama toward
Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti. A few showers and thunderstorms are
also active across the southern Windward Islands. High pressure
centered over the central Atlantic is supporting moderate E winds
across the eastern Caribbean where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere with 1 to 3 ft seas.
For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the
northwest Caribbean Tue through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh
winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front.
Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the
frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
over much of the basin through the work week. Tropical Storm
Lorenzo will remain east of the area.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm east
of a cold front reaching from 30N73W to central Cuba. 1016 mb
high pressure is centered near 24N61W. Fresh to strong winds and
seas to 8 ft are near this cold front north of 30N. A few
showers are along a trough extending from 30N54W to 26N53W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident along this trough
as well. Farther east, weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 28N36W,
and another 1016 high pressure area is near 24N33W. Strong winds
and rough seas extend within 270 nm of the center of Lorenzo.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and generally 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N70W to
western Cuba by Tue morning, from near Bermuda to central Cuba by
Wed morning, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side
of the front across the waters N of 27N by Tue night. These
marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through late
in the week.
$$
Christensen
