220
AXNT20 KNHC 040527
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jul 4 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive
for further development, and a tropical or subtropical depression
could form near the southeastern United States late today or over
the weekend if the low remains offshore. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-
central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today. This disturbance
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the
next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system
north of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will support
gale-force NE winds with severe gusts close and between the Canary
Islands from 04/18 UTC until at least 05/00 UTC according to
Meteo France. Seas will be moderate to rough, peaking around 11
ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility is reduced to
moderate or poor due to sand haze.
For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen near the southern part of the wave from 08N to 12N and between
18W and 27W.
Another eastern tropical wave is along 35W, south of 19N, moving
westward around 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a very stable
and dry environment. Only isolated showers are near its southern
part.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident in the
eastern Caribbean and over Venezuela within 120 nm of the trough
axis.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 19N,
moving westward near 15 kt. A few showers are noted in the SW
Caribbean near the trough axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues west-southwestward to 13N25W
and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 05N52W. Aside from
convection associated to the tropical waves, no other convection
is presently occurring.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A complex weather system over the SE United States and divergence
aloft is producing a large area of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms that affects most of the NE Gulf waters. Drier
conditions likely associated with Saharan dust dominate the
remainder of the basin. At the surface, a weak high pressure
system supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and
slight seas in the eastern Bay of Campeche. In the rest of the
Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, surface trough will prevail across the NE Gulf through
the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high
pressure will then prevail into early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please
see the Tropical Wave section for more details.
The pressure gradient resulting from the combination of central
Atlantic high pressure and relatively low pressure in northern
Colombia is leading to fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas prevail in the
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent. Aside from the convection
associated with the passing tropical waves, generally dry
conditions are noted over the tropical waters.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of
moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras beginning on Sat
night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the NE Atlantic. Please see the
Special Features section for more details. Two tropical waves are
moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave
section for more details.
Unsettled weather conditions continue across the waters off NE
Florida and the NW Bahamas due to favorable upper level pattern
and abundant moisture. The pressure gradient between a low
pressure in the SE United States and a subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic support fresh to strong southerly winds north of
27N and west of 77W. Moderate seas are evident in the area
described. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate
seas are noted off northern Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. Farther
east, a surface trough centered north of Puerto Rico is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 25N
and west of 55W. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west
of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
strong 1034 mb high pressure system in the far NE Atlantic that is
forcing fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas east
of 40W and north of 19N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are found south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.
For the forecast west of 55W, disorganized showers and
thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula eastward to the
adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are associated
with a weak surface trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region
over the weekend while the system drifts northward or
northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida
through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the
Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
on Friday, if necessary. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next two days, and also through the
next 7 days.
$$
Delgado
