000
AXNT20 KNHC 180605
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jul 18 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 17N
southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 25W and 35W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from the western
tip of Hispaniola southward to northern Colombia. It is moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted near the Colombia-Venezuela border.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the northern
Gulf of Honduras southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa
Rica to the East Pacific. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found
over Honduras and across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and
Panama.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then extends west-southwestward across
10N30W to 08N43W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N43W to near
the coast of Guyana at 08N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is near and south of the monsoon trough from 08N
to 12N between 20W and the Senegal/Guinea-Bissau coast. Scattered
moderate convection is present near and up to 120 nm north of the
ITCZ between 43W and 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough runs southward from a 1013 mb low, former Invest
AL93 over southeastern Louisiana to the central Gulf. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just southwest of
New Orleans. An upper-level trough is triggering isolated
thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida. Moderate to locally
fresh NE to E to S-SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the
eastern Bay of Campeche, Florida Straits and northern Gulf
between New Orleans, LO and Panama City, Fl. A surface ridge
extending southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico supports the rest of the Gulf with gentle E to SE winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas.
For the forecast, former Invest AL93 can still produce heavy
rainfall which could cause localized flash flooding over portions
of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh E to NE winds will prevail north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and
evening into next week. High pressure building over the
northeastern Gulf this weekend will support gentle to moderate
winds and seas across the rest of the Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms offshore of south-central Cuba. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea. A 1023 mb Bermuda High is sustaining trade-wind flow across
the entire basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE to E
winds with 9 to 12 ft seas dominate the south-central basin.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7
to 9 ft are seen at the north-central and southwestern basin,
including the Windward Passage. Fresh E winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh ENE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the
basin.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across
the central basin and Windward Passage tonight, with strong winds
expanding into the west-central basin through Fri as the Bermuda
high strengthens. Periods of near-gale force winds are likely in
the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of northern Colombia nightly
into this weekend. Rough seas will occur over the central and
southwestern basin through this weekend, with very rough seas
expected near and west of the strongest winds. Winds will
diminish slightly on Sat and Sun, with seas subsiding late Sun
into next week. In the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing fresh winds will
occur each afternoon and evening through Sat, with strong winds
possible tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will prevail over the eastern basin into next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper-level low near 27N59W is triggering scattered moderate
convection southeast of Bermuda, north of 28N between 54W and 60W.
Convergent fresh to locally strong SE winds are generating
similar convection in the Great Bahama Bank, seas range from 4 to
8 ft. A 1023 mb Bermuda High near 29N68W is supporting light to
gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas north of 26N between 60W and 75W.
Otherwise, the subtropical ridge is sustaining gentle to moderate
NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 10N between 35W and
the Lesser Antilles/Bahamas. Moderate S winds and seas at 3 to 5
ft are noted off the central and northeastern Florida coast.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas mixed
moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin
west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are
expected north of the Greater Antilles to 27N through Fri as a
strong pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over the
south-central Caribbean and the Bermuda High. Strong winds will
pulse north of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage into
early Sat. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into next week as high
pressure weakens and drifts westward over the western Atlantic.
Moderate SE winds will occur off the coast of Florida tonight,
west of 75W, as a trough of low pressure in the north-central
Gulf of America moves westward. Elsewhere, south of 20N, moderate
to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail through this
weekend.
$$
Chan
