000
AXNT20 KNHC 122303
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: The remnant low of of Jerry is north of
the area about 120 nm to the E-SE of Bermuda, with a sharp
surface trough reaching to 31N60W. Gale force winds and seas to
15 ft are ongoing on the end of the trough from 30N to 31N
between 59W and 61W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough to
very rough seas are also north of 29N between 58W and 63W. Winds
will diminish to near- gale force late tonight, and seas will
subside below 12 ft tomorrow morning.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the gale warning.
Invest AL97: A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands along 37W from 05N to 15N, moving west around
15 kt. 1006 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave near
12N37W, and it continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms within 210 nm of the center, mostly to
the north of the center. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some development of this system during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of this week while it moves to the west- northwest or
northwest at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical Atlantic.
This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the
next 48 hrs.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more
information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the tropical wave associated with Invest AL97.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 17N16W to 10N30W to 1006 mb low pressure near 12N37W to
08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 10N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 22W and 28W.
Additional convection is described in Special Features section
associated with Invest AL97.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1013 mb high pressure centered over the coast of southwest
Louisiana is supporting gentle NE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas
over most of the Gulf except 3 to 5 ft in the southwest Gulf.
No significant convection is noted.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
late this week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas. Winds are expected to increase to fresh speeds
over the eastern Gulf Thu night through Fri night as the pressure
gradient tightens some across the area.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stalled front crosses far western Cuba. Moderate S winds
persist in the lee of Cuba ahead of the boundary. An upper trough
supporting the front extends from the northeast Gulf to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Divergence aloft ahead of the trough is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the
north-central Caribbean from Haiti to Jamaica to the Cayman
Islands, and over the central Caribbean between northeast
Colombia and Haiti. Moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support
moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across
the eastern Caribbean through mid week. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
pattern will maintain moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period. A weak cyclonic
circulation may develop over the NW Caribbean toward midweek.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
Gale Warning south of Bermuda and Invest 97W well SW of the Cabo
Verde Islands.
A stalled front, associated with the 993 mb coastal low off the
US East Coast, extends from 31N73W to far western Cuba. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active within 240 nm to the east
of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are in the vicinity of the
front. 8-11 ft seas are north of 25N east of 50W with a component
of southerly swell. Another frontal boundary extends from 31N58W
to 31N33W. 1015 mb low pressure is along the front near 27N52W.
Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas
prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a 993 mb gale center is centered
off the Carolinas. Its associated frontal boundary will be
reinforced on Mon, and the merged front will extend from 31N71W
to the central Bahamas and western Cuba as a cold front by Mon
evening, and from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba
by Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected
on either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by late
Tue.
$$
Christensen
