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000
WTNT32 KNHC 042037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023


...PHILIPPE TURNS NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...22.6N 65.9W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Philippe.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 65.9 West. Philippe is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will approach and pass near Bermuda Thursday night and Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite-derived winds indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Some strengthening is possible on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the east of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to diminish this evening.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$ Forecaster Berg

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