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WTNT31 KNHC 110450
TCPAT1

Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this afternoon.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta or its remnants generally northeastward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario.

This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Beven

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