000
WTPZ45 KNHC 261441
TCDEP5
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ramon Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023
700 AM PST Sun Nov 26 2023
Ramon is producing some isolated deep convection to the north and
northeast of the center, but the system has lacked significant
thunderstorm activity for the last 12 hours or so. Therefore Ramon
is being designated as a remnant low at this time, and this is the
last advisory. The current intensity estimate is set at 30 kt
based on the assumption of a gradual spin down overnight. this is
also in agreement with satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB
Although the cyclone could still produce a few sporadic bursts of
showers and thunderstorms for the next day or so, strong westerly
shear on the order of 40 to 50 kt and dry low- to mid-tropospheric
air should preclude the redevelopment of significant, organized deep
convection. This is also consistent with simulated satellite
imagery from the global models that show little or no deep
convection associated with the system for the next few days. The
cyclone should continue to weaken, and dissipate in 48 hours or so.
A mainly westward track is likely to continue into early next week
while the cyclone moves within the near-surface tradewind flow.
For additional information on Ramon's remnant low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 14.4N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 27/0000Z 14.2N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch