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WTPZ44 KNHC 150831
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Vertical wind shear, cool waters, and a dry and stable atmosphere have taken a toll on Norbert. The system has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and therefore it has become a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is set at 25 kt, which is based on a TAFB Dvorak CI number of T1.5. This could be a little generous as the system has likely continued to spin down since the previous advisory. The remnant low should continue to weaken today, and the global models indicate that the low will open up into a trough of low pressure off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight.

The post-tropical cyclone has slowed down and is now moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. A slow north-northwestward motion within the weak low-level steering flow is expected until dissipation occurs.

This is the last NHC advisory on Norbert. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 26.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 15/1800Z 27.1N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Brown

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