WTPZ44 KNHC 060242

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pilar Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023
800 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023

After the low- and mid-level centers of Pilar decoupled this morning, the system has failed to produce any deep convection near the center. Although the system is still located over warm SSTs, dry mid-level air and strong mid-level shear is likely to prevent organized deep convection from returning. Therefore, Pilar has become a post-tropical remnant low. The initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt, based on a blend of the available satellite estimates, but this could be generous. The system could still produce a few bursts of deep convection during the next day or so, but it should continue to gradually spin down. The global model guidance indicates that the circulation will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 2-3 days, if not sooner.

They cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two as the low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system weakens. Since the system has become vertically shallow, the NHC track is along the left or south side of the guidance envelop between the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), and the GFS and UKMET ensemble means.

This is the last NHC advisory on Pilar. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


INIT 06/0300Z 10.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 11.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 11.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 13.9N 119.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Brown