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WTPZ43 KNHC 270233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
800 PM PDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Unexpectedly, the satellite presentation of Celia has improved this evening. A recent SSMIS microwave pass revealed a distinct mid-level eye with a ring of deep convection surrounding the center of the cyclone. Infrared cloud top temperatures near and over the center have cooled during the past several hours, and overall the cloud pattern appears more organized than earlier today. The initial intensity is set at 50 kt based on a blend of the objective SATCON estimate (46 kt) and consensus T3.5/55 kt Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB.

Celia is still moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt, as it is steered by a mid-level ridge that extends over the eastern North Pacific. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days until Celia dissipates. The track guidance is still tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Despite the recent uptick in intensity, Celia is still expected to weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Model-simulated satellite imagery suggests that Celia will struggle to maintain deep organized convection by Tuesday, and so the NHC forecast still calls for the cyclone to become post-tropical in 36 h. Then, the system will continue weakening as it gradually spins down over sub-22 deg C waters. By late Thursday, the remnant low is forecast to open into a trough and dissipate.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 20.0N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 22.1N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 23.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 23.9N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Reinhart

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