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WTPZ43 KNHC 242051
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Tue Sep 24 2019

Kiko is now a swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection in the face of 40 kt of southwest shear as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity was lowered to 35 kt, though ADT and ASCAT passes just coming in suggest this may be a bit generous. Strong southwest shear is expected to continue to prevent the development of persistent deep convection through the forecast period. This will allow the low-level center to turn westward, and then southwestward following the trade wind flow and weaken. The current forecast lies very close to the previous one. Without deep convection, Kiko's wind field should continue to steadily spin down.

Kiko will be moving into the central Pacific basin this afternoon and subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.0N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 18.5N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.9N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 18.5N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster R Ballard

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