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WTPZ42 KNHC 170233
TCDEP2

Remnants Of Tara Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Data from several recent microwave overpasses, last-light visible imagery, and surface observations from Mexico indicate that Tara no longer has a well-defined surface center. The mid-level center of the former tropical cyclone appeared to move inland earlier this evening, though it is unclear whether the surface center made it that far. Regardless, the high terrain of Mexico has caused the surface circulation to open into a trough of low pressure and dissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Tara. Although the remnant trough will likely produce intermittent convection near the coast of Mexico tonight, continued close proximity to land should prevent it from reorganizing into a tropical cyclone, and all of the global models indicate that the remnants will gradual weaken over the next 12 hours or so.

Although Tara is no longer a tropical depression, its remnants could still cause heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA 12H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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