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000
WTNT45 KNHC 250840
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102022
800 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022

Hermine's structure overnight has deteriorated further. While occasional intermittent bursts of deep convection are still occurring to the north of the elongated surface circulation, this convection lacks organization. The system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and, therefore, is being declared a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Hermine.

Strong southwesterly shear greater than 40 kt and a high statically stable surrounding Saharan air mass should prevent the regeneration of organized convection during the next several days. The global models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance agree that the remnant low will open up into a trough of low pressure Tuesday, and the official forecast follows suit.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today while the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge. Beyond Monday morning, the remnant low is forecast to turn toward the northwest and west-northwest in response to the above mention ridge building westward over the extreme eastern tropical Atlantic. The NHC forecast track is based on the various consensus aids and is similar to the previous advisory.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 23.6N 20.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1800Z 24.3N 19.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z 24.6N 20.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 24.9N 21.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Roberts

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