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WTNT45 KNHC 150845
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this morning with only loosely fragmented curved bands observed within the broad circulation. The satellite intensity estimates suggest that the cyclone has not strengthened, and the initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is near the high end of the Dvorak estimates.

The center of the cyclone has been challenging to locate, and the satellite center fixes from TAFB and SAB were about 60 n mi apart. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325 degrees, at 10 kt, but this is of low confidence given the broad nature of the system. The depression is expected to move generally northwestward during the next couple of days steered by a mid-level ridge over western Africa. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast beyond a couple of days when the weak and shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast takes the center of the depression near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models.

The environmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable for about the next 12-24 hours, so there is some chance that the cyclone could become a tropical storm during that time. However, given the large size of the system, significant intensification is not expected. On Wednesday, a pronounced increase in southwesterly wind shear, drier air, and cooler SSTs should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in about 2 days when the shear is forecast to be very strong. All of the models show the cyclone opening up into a trough within 3 or 4 days.

Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 15.6N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.4N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 17.5N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 18.4N 24.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 19.4N 25.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 21.5N 29.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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