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000
WTNT41 KNHC 062033
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex has not produced any deep convection near its center since last night. It's surface circulation has also become elongated and ill-defined. Based on these factors, Alex is now classified as post-tropical and this will be the last advisory. The initial intensity is set at 50 kt, assuming a little weakening has occurred since this morning, though this is uncertain due to a lack of recent ASCAT or surface observations.

Alex is moving quickly toward the east-northeast. Another non-tropical low or trough is forecast to develop to the northeast of Alex tonight. While there is quite a bit of variability in the details, all global models forecast that Alex and the other low will merge within the next 24 h or so, so the NHC forecast now shows dissipation at that time. The baroclinic system that results from that merger is expected to strengthen and could produce hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic by midweek. For more information, please see forecasts from the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 35.5N 60.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0600Z 37.6N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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