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HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2022

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

WALLOPS CDA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 12(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)

RICHMOND VA 34 1 23(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)

DANVILLE VA 34 7 50(57) 10(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)

NORFOLK NAS 34 3 29(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)

NORFOLK VA 34 4 31(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)

OCEANA NAS VA 34 6 32(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)

ELIZABETH CTY 34 29 30(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)

GREENSBORO NC 34 12 54(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

RALEIGH NC 34 55 35(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
RALEIGH NC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ROCKY MT NC 34 66 24(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)

FAYETTEVILLE 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 14 40(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

CHERRY PT NC 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

NEW RIVER NC 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SURF CITY NC 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 7 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

FLORENCE SC 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FLORENCE SC 50 8 61(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
FLORENCE SC 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

COLUMBIA SC 34 50 21(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
COLUMBIA SC 50 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)

LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LITTLE RIVER 50 25 20(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 47 25(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 76 14(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 5 19(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)

CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHARLESTON SC 50 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
CHARLESTON SC 64 34 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)

BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 62 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ATLANTA GA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

AUGUSTA GA 34 11 15(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)

SAVANNAH GA 34 67 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
SAVANNAH GA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

KINGS BAY GA 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)

WAYCROSS GA 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MAYPORT NS FL 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)

JACKSONVILLE 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

TAMPA FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

COLUMBUS GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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