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AGXX40 KNHC 121711
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow currently across the western gulf waters will spread north across the north- central portion early Thu as a cold front moves off the Texas coast. The cold front will reach a position from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Thu night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel on Fri, and move E of area through the Bahama Channel around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale force northerly flow will immediately develop west of the front, increasing to gale force on Thu evening over the northwest and west-central gulf waters. Near gale force southwesterly to westerly flow expected across the entire northern waters on Fri. The pressure gradient will relax on Fri night and Sat, with moderate west flow expected on Sat evening, and seas forecast to subside to less than 8 ft throughout the gulf by sunrise on Sun.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the S-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend, with nocturnal pulses to near gale force off the northwest coast of Colombia. These strong trades will expand north across the entire central Caribbean on Fri and Fri night. A frontal trough extending southwest from east Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will drift west- northwest and gradually dissipate through early Fri. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will continue west of the front through this evening. A cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean on Fri afternoon, and dissipate over the NW Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Large north swell will reach the Leewards on Sat, and spread south through the northeast Atlantic passages during the upcoming weekend.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 27N65W then becomes stationary to east Cuba. The boundary will begin to drift back north on Thu and extend east to west along 25N on Fri. Large seas, primarily due to northwest swell, currently across the waters northeast of the Bahamas will subside from the west through Thu. A surface high near 30N78W will shift east- northeast passing northwest of Bermuda on Thu, setting up strong to near gale southerly return flow north of the Bahamas on Thu night and Fri, all ahead of another cold front that will sweep east across the northern waters during the upcoming weekend and reach a position from Bermuda to central Cuba on Sun night.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Gale Warning Thu night.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning Fri.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.

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