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AGXX40 KNHC 160809
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
257 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the western Gulf while a trough is noted over the NE Gulf. Under this weather pattern, mainly NW to N winds are observed across the region, with seas of 6 to 9 ft based on altimeter data. The ridge will persist across the Gulf over the next 48-72 hours as a high pressure moves from eastern Texas tonight to SE Louisiana by Sun evening, and toward the Florida Panhandle by Mon evening. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu and drag the next cold front across the Gulf waters.

Looking ahead, the pressure gradient is forecast to tighten across the northern Gulf waters on Thu as the aforementioned low pressure deepens over the SE of United States. As a result, marine conditions will deteriorate across the Gulf. Model guidance suggests fresh to strong W to NW winds across the waters N of 26N on Thu, and across the area N of 22N on Fri, with seas possibly building to 12-14 ft on Fri. Minimal gale conditions are not out of the question.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

A nearly stationary front is over the NW Caribbean and extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. A band of mainly low clouds with embedded showers is associated with the front. A recent scatterometer pass indicates the winds shift associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh northerly winds follow the front, forecast to slowly move E across central Cuba today, reaching eastern Cuba on Mon, then will dissipate across the Caribbean waters. Fresh northerly winds are expected W of the front across the Gulf of Honduras through Mon.

Fresh to strong winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft today and tonight. Large N swell will continue funneling from the Atlantic through the NE Caribbean passages today.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A cold front extends from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba. Some convective activity is seen along the frontal boundary. The front will push E and extend from 31N70W across the central Bahamas to central Cuba by this evening, from 28N65W to eastern Cuba by Mon evening, and from 24N65W across the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba on Tue evening, then stall and dissipate over the SE waters on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 28N ahead of the front to about 70W. These winds will persist through tonight with seas building to 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong westerly winds are also expected N of 30N W of the front through tonight. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the N waters on Thu as a low pressure system deepens over the SE of United States. Gale conditions are not out of the question.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

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