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AGXX40 KNHC 181803
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridge from the W Atlc to N central Gulf will shift E today. Fresh to strong S return flow will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico tonight through Sat. A strong cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sat morning, with a squall line preceding the front. NW to N gales are expected behind the front along the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Saturday afternoon shifting to near Veracruz Saturday night. GFS continues to slowly weaken wind field behind front in recent runs but still forecasting gales. The front will exit the Gulf by Sun evening and allow strong winds to taper off over the basin by sunrise on Mon.




...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the S central Caribbean through Tue night, increasing to gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia tonight and Sat night, and then again Mon night and Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sea on Sun and Mon, then stall and weaken. The front will reach from the Yucatan Channel to the central coast of Honduras on Sun morning, and then extend from SE Cuba to the eastern coast of Honduras on Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Weak high pressure will drift eastward from the SE United States toward Bermuda through Sat afternoon. Winds will veer to the S, and then strengthen Sat afternoon through Sun morning E of Florida and ahead of a strong cold front. The strong cold front will push off the Florida peninsula Sun morning and extend from 31N79W to 28N80W, then reach from 31N74W to 27N75W to eastern Cuba Sun night and finally stretch from 27N65W to near the Windward Passage on Mon. Gale force winds are suggested by models on either side of the front N of 28N and W of 60W Sun through Mon, with GFS showing SSW winds to 40 kt along 30N E of front Sun morning. Seas could build as high as 20 ft in NW swell behind the front near 31N65W on Tue.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sat. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sat. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Wed.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.

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