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000
AGXX40 KNHC 210624
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge will remain over the northern Gulf Coast through Thu night. A surface trough currently extending from Tampa Bay, FL to the SE GuLf near 23N85W will drift westward across the eastern Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 2-3 days. A low pressure may develop along the trough axis over the NW Caribbean toward the end of the work-week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the trough through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri.

A thermal trough will develop during the evening hours over the Yucatan Peninsula, then move west across the southwest waters during the overnight hours, and dissipate by late each morning. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE-E winds will accompany this trough. A recent ASCAT pass indicates NE winds of 20-25 kt in association with this trough just off the western Yucatan Peninsula from 20N-22N between 90W-91.5W.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trades over the central Caribbean through most of the forecast period. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft will affect the NW coast of Colombia.

A surface trough extends across the western Caribbean from 21N85W to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua to 12N83W. This trough will drift westward across Central America through at least Thu. A low pressure may develop along the trough axis, and move over Nicaragua and Honduras, emerging into the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. The pressure gradient between the trough and the Atlantic high pressure will help to maintain the fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and parts of the western Caribbean. The most recent scatterometer data show an area of fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and similar wind speeds from the SE on the E side of the trough from 18N-21N.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

An east to west ridge will reside near 30N through mid week. The ridge will support fresh to locally strong E to SE winds mainly S of 26N, including the Old Bahama Channel, and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Tue night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail N of Hispaniola, mainly at night. A broad area of low pressure may develop over the NW Caribbean and move northward across the eastern Gulf. This will cause strong SE to S winds to develop over the waters W of 75W late Fri into Sat.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

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