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AGXX40 KNHC 171745
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure will dominate the basin through Fri. Fresh to strong S return flow will develop over the western Gulf Fri night and Sat ahead of a strong cold front expected to reach the NW Gulf Sat evening. A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely precede the front. Winds to gale force will be possible behind the front Sat night and Sun morning near Tampico and Veracruz. The latest forecast issuance favors the ECMWF with respect to the timing of the arrival of the front over the Gulf. Model guidance consensus has been trending downward with respect to the areal extent and strength of the gales over the western Gulf. Latest event should focus in the climatologically favored areas near Tampico and Veracruz. Winds should top out around 40 kt near Veracruz Sat night. The front should exit the Gulf by Sun evening and allow string winds to taper off over the basin by sunrise on Mon.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Winds along the immediate coast of Colombia will reach minimal gale force at night. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sun. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun morning, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun night before stalling on Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Weak high pressure will drift E from the SE United States toward Bermuda through Sat night. Winds will veer to the S, then strengthen Sat through Sun morning east of Florida, then a strong cold front will push off the Florida peninsula Sun afternoon. The front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W Sun night, then from 31N66W to 22N78W Mon. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either side of the front N of 28N Sun and Mon.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning tonight. Gale Warning Fri night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue night.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night into Mon.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.

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