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AGXX40 KNHC 212117
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
517 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Updated SW N Atlantic section

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Fort Myers Florida to 27N94W where it becomes a warm front to a weak 1016 mb low over the NW Gulf near 26N96W as of 18Z this afternoon. A stationary front trails from the low to 24N96W to 21N97W. A tight gradient between the fronts and strong high pressure over the central United States that is building east- southeastward over the southeastern United States is allowing for strong NE winds over the northern half of the basin W of 89W, and fresh N to NE winds E of 89W as indicated in the latest buoy observations and in an ASCAT pass from this morning. The cold front will continue to move quickly across the Gulf E of 96W through tonight and become stationary over the SE Gulf on Mon.

The low will slowly move northeastward through Mon night, then east northeastward across the north-central waters through Thu night and the NE Gulf by Fri, dragging a new cold front across the SW Gulf. The culprit tight gradient will gradually slackens allowing for the fresh to strong winds to slightly diminish Mon through early Tue. These winds are expected to increase again again late Tue or Wed if another low pressure forms over the NW Gulf and tracks to the northeast as Global models depict.

Expect unsettled weather conditions over the western Gulf waters through Thu. These conditions shift to the eastern and central waters late Thu through Fri, with the low and cold front.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse back up late tonight in the Windward Passage and within 30 nm of a line from 17.5N70W to 17N72W. The winds through the Windward Passage will diminish early Mon, and the winds south of Hispaniola will diminish by early Mon afternoon. NE winds through the Windward Passage increase to strong yet again late Mon afternoon and diminish late Mon night. By early Tue afternoon, these winds diminish to fresh speeds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then diminish to the gentle intensity through Thu night. A tropical wave has entered the far eastern Caribbean as seen visible satellite imagery and as indicated in an ASCAT pass from this morning. This wave will slowly move across the eastern Caribbean through Wed as it weakens. East to southeast gentle to moderate winds will follow in behind the wave.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...Updated

A strong cold front is analyzed from near 31N69W to West Palm Beach at 18Z this afternoon. This front will reach from near Bermuda to Miami tonight, and from near 28N65W to the Florida Keys Mon morning and become stationary through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind this front through Mon night as strong high pressure slides eastward off the U.S. east coast. The high pressure and front will weaken Tue through early Thu allowing for winds to diminish and seas to subside. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten beginning on Thu east of NE Florida between high pressure to the N across the eastern seaboard and low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of the Mexico to across northern Florida. This scenario has a medium confidence for the time being.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO... None.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.

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