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AGXX40 KNHC 250627
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the basin due to a very dry airmass at low and middle levels of the atmosphere, as indicated by GOES-16 water vapor imagery. CIRA microwave imagery at the lower levels show patches of shallow moisture advecting to the northwest Gulf, which is supporting dense fog north of 27N and west of 91W. This fog will dissipate later this morning. A broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic extends across the basin supporting moderate to fresh southeast flow across the basin.

A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, then stall and weaken from the FL panhandle to NE Mexico through Mon night. High pressure will build across the region Tue. Another, stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed night. Gale conditions are possible over the SW Gulf Thu afternoon and Thu night behind this front. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected elsewhere behind the front. The front will reach the SE Gulf on Fri.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Water vapor imagery from GOES-16 shows deep layer dry air across the Caribbean, which is supporting fair weather across most of the basin. Scattered showers are noted across the Greater Antilles generated by shallow moisture transported by moderate to fresh trades.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds east of 80W through tonight, with the strongest winds over the Windward Passage and along the coast of N Colombia. Winds and seas will gradually diminish for the most part Mon, except strong winds will pulse near the Colombia coast at night through Thu night.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A broad surface ridge prevails across the west and central Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N69W and a 1025 mb high near 31N57W. Fresh to locally strong east winds are noted in the approaches of the Windward Passage and the eastern Great Bahama Bank. These strong winds will diminish below 20 kt by this afternoon. Seas to 9 ft east of the southern Bahamas will decrease below 8 ft by this afternoon as well.

High pressure centered near 31N70W will weaken and shift southward tonight through Mon night. A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S. on Mon, then become stationary along about 28N through Tue, with high pressure building N of the front. Large swell will reach the zones E of 70W midweek. A stronger cold front will affect waters mainly N of 28N Thu night. This front will approach the SE U.S. coast early Thu with strong SW winds developing E of the front. The front will move quickly SE over the forecast waters, reaching from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Friday morning. Strong NW winds are expected N of 28N behind the front. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft N of 28N under the stronger winds both E and W of the front.

$$


.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone:


.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.


.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None.


.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$


.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.

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