000
AXNT20 KNHC 311053
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
low pressure over NE Georgia southwestward to the Big Bend of
Florida, and continues to 25N87W and to inland Mexico near 19N95W.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are in the wake
of the front as it quickly moves southeastward across the area. It
will exit the basin by early this afternoon. The low pressure
will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast
through tonight as another blast of arctic air surges across the
Gulf sustaining gale force winds offshore Veracruz into early this
morning, and across the eastern Gulf through late late tonight,
with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds
may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead,
winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun
through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern
Gulf in the wake of the front.
Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1011 mb is just N of the
area near 31N76W. The low will slowly track NE offshore the
Carolina coast through tonight while expanding and rapidly
intensifying. The low will part of complex low pressure system
with a mean center as it tracks to the NE. A strong arctic cold
front associated with this system is currently moving through the
eastern Gulf of America. It will cross Florida today and sweep
across the western Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very
large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising
seas will cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat
through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Gusts
to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is
expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba this evening,
from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to
weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon
evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will
impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from this evening through
early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next
week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for today and beyond,
and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly
changing conditions.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information on both events.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N22W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W and to just inland the coast
of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-34W and within 30 nm
of the ITCZ between 19W-25W. Similar activity is to the southeast
of the trough within 30 nm of line from 03N12W to 01N19W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning in the SW Gulf soon to end and for
anoyher Gale Warning for the eastern Gulf.
East of the cold front described in the Special Features section,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western
Gulf by late Wed..
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward
across central Cuba, to a weak 1013 mb low just south of Cuba
at 21.5N79W. The trough continues to 10N82W. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas are west of the trough to near
84.5W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate
seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.
For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front that is
currently moving through the eastern and central Gulf of America
will move into the northwestern Caribbean this morning overtaking
the trough. The cold front will reach from the vicinity of the
Windward Passage to 15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from
Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to
stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early
Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas are expected
behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds
will over just about the entire basin roughly west of a line from
the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft.
These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning for the western Atlantic.
The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the
tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is
currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. Scattered
moderate convection is seen east of the Bahamas from 23N to 28N
between 71W and 75W. This activity is being sustained by an upper-
level disturbance riding along a subtropical jetstream branch that
passes over that part of the area. A surface trough extends from
near 28N76W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Moderate
to locally strong east to southeast winds are between 65W and 76W
as depicted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass.
Seas over these waters are about 6 to 8 ft.
Farther east, a frontal trough extends from near 31N45W to 25N54W,
and another trough extends from near 31N52W to 27N62W, and yet
another trough is analyzed from 24N61W to just north of the north-
central Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are
east of the first trough to near 37W and north of about 27.5N.
Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell within the area of these winds.
Isolated showers are possible near these troughs. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high that is near
29N27W. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are found south
of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands.
Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the
aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the
dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features
section for more information.
$$
Aguirre
