405
AXNT20 KNHC 120609
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge near 28N and a
Colombian Low at northwestern Colombia will cause near-gale to
gale-force easterly winds along with 8 to 11 ft seas at the
waters off Barranquilla tonight through Thursday morning.
Afterward, both winds and seas should gradually subside Thursday
evening through Friday morning.
Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front will move off the Carolina and Georgia coast on
Thursday afternoon. Expect fresh to strong S winds to become W to
NW at near-gale to gale-force by late Thursday afternoon. Seas
will follow and rise to between 8 and 10 ft by late Thursday
night. As the cold front pulls farther southeastward into the
western Atlantic and weakens, conditions will gradually improve
on Friday.
For both gale events above, please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.
Gale Warning E of 35W:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir marine zone
until 12/03Z. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
just north of Conakry, then reaches southwestward to near 04N17W.
An ITCZ continues from 04N17W across 00N27W to near Fortaleza,
Brazil. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen
south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 05N between 10W and 15W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near
the ITCZ from 04S to 02N between 17W and 34W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front is near the Texas coast from near the Texas-
Louisiana border southwestward to Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 70 nm
southeast of the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds along with 6
to 8 ft seas are noted behind this front. Otherwise, a surface
ridge extending southwestward from central Florida to just north
of Tampico, Mexico is dominating the rest of the Gulf with gentle
to moderate NE to SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward tonight through
the remainder of the week. The aforementioned cold front will move
southeastward before stalling across the southeastern Gulf Thu
night, then dissipate there Fri through Fri night. Expect strong
to near gale-force N winds behind the front through Thu evening
before winds gradually diminish. Marine conditions will improve
significantly early Fri through Sun as weak high pressure settles
just north of the Gulf. Another cold front will move into the
northwestern Gulf Sun night and reach the southeastern Gulf by
Mon night. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the front
along with rough seas, with possible gales off Tamaulipas and
Veracruz Mon and Mon night
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.
A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin.
Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and
seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle
to moderate NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the
northwestern basin and off the coast of Costa Rica. Moderate to
fresh E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage.
For the forecast, the Atlantic Ridge near 28N will shift eastward
Thu through Fri night, causing the fresh to strong winds to be
confined at the south-central basin, south of 13N during that
time. Marine conditions are expected to gradually improve across
the basin as the pressure gradient weakens. Large easterly trade
wind swell from the Tropical North Atlantic will slowly subside
across the Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles tonight.
High pressure will build across the Atlantic to the north Sat
night through Mon, allowing fresh to strong trades and building
seas to extend westward from the Tropical North Atlantic into the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features at the beginning on two Gale
Warning.
Two modest surface troughs are producing widely scattered showers
from 21N to 28N between 50W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.
A broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1030 mb high
near 35N45W across 31N60W to beyond central Florida is supporting
gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of
20N between 50W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the
east, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted
north 20N between 35W and 50W. Farther south from the Equator to
20N between 35W and 45W, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 5
to 7 ft in moderate NE swell exist. For the tropical Atlantic from
the Equator to 20N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in large NE swell
prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through Thu as Atlantic high pressure
persists along 32N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
off northern Florida tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
That front will move offshore of northeastern Florida by Thu
evening with fresh to gale-force winds and quickly building seas
behind it Thu night. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin
to stall as it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme southern
Florida Fri morning, then drift northwestward and dissipate Fri
evening. High pressure ridging will then prevail across the
western Atlantic north of 25N Sat and strengthen Sat night through
Mon, leading to fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas
nearly basin-wide.
$$
Chan
