AXNT20 KNHC 031756

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1011 mb low is analyzed near 11N26.5W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted is within 120 nm W semicircle of low center. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two. Further development will become less likely late this week due to increasing upper- level winds. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward by mid-week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.


A tropical wave is near 51W with a 1012mb low pressure along the wave axis near 09N51W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have changed little in organization during the last several hours. Slow development is possible during the next several days while the wave moves generally westward at 15 kt, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of the system. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and also through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Recent satellite derived wind data show and area of fresh to strong E to SE winds on the E side of the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 47W and 51W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are within these winds.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N17W and extends to a 1011 mb low pressure located near 11N26.5W to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N36W to 09N48W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is just N of the monsoon trough to 15N and E of 20W to the coast of W Africa, affecting the coastal waters of Senegal and The Gambia. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 25W and 38W, and elsewhere from 10N to 13N between 25W and 33W.


A surface trough extends across the Gulf waters from near Campeche to Ciudad Victoria in Mexico. Low levels clouds with possible showers are along and near the trough. A frontal trough is over the NE Gulf followed by moderate NE winds. Otherwise, high pressure stretching southward from the upper Great Lakes to the Gulf is maintaining dry and stable conditions throughout the Gulf, with the associated gradient allowing for gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and relatively low seas of 1-3 ft per buoy observations and altimeter data.

For the forecast, the trough over the NE Gulf will sink to near 27N east of 90W today, while at the same time, high pressure from the central U.S. continues to build southward over the region. A front over the southeastern U.S. will move southward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Tue night, followed by another area of relatively weak high pressure. This will allow for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to occur mainly over the NE Gulf. These winds then become east gentle to moderate on Wed, with little change expected through Fri night. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will develop over the southeastern Gulf starting Fri as a tight gradient builds behind a cold front that will reach the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys.


A surface trough persists over the west-central Caribbean, and extends from near Camaguey, Cuba to the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the trough axis. This convective activity is affecting parts of eastern Cuba and Jamaica as well as NE Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Light to gentle winds are near the trough axis. Another surface trough is over the NE Caribbean, and extends along 62W from 13N to 19N. A partial scatterometer pass and surface observations indicate the wind shift related to the trough axis. A area of moderate to fresh trade winds with seas of 4 to 5 ft is just N of La Guajira peninsula to about 15N between 70W and 73W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds along with relatively low seas of 1-3 ft are present over the western part of the basin, while gentle to moderate east to southeast trade wind and seas of 3-4 ft remain over the rest of the area.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough with active showers and thunderstorms will persist over the west-central Caribbean through at least Wed. Weak Atlantic high pressure remains centered across the central Atlantic. A tropical wave currently along 51W will reach the Lesser Antilles Tue night and move into the eastern Caribbean Wed. Some improved organization of this wave is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin over the next few days.


A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N70W, and extends SW across the NW Bahamas to near SE Florida. A frontal trough follows the front, and runs from 31N77W to near St. Augustine, FL. Fresh northerly winds and building seas are behind the trough. A large area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the cold front covering the waters N of 21N E of front to 60W. An upper- level low is spinning near 23N55W generating some shower and tstms activity. In the east Atlantic, a nearly stationary upper-level low is seen on water vapor imagery to be near 30N31W. A weak surface low of 1014 mb is analyzed in the same area near 30N31W, with a trough extending from the low center to near 28N40W. This feature is also producing some shower and tstms activity. Light winds are noted on either side of the trough. Higher winds are observed near the tstms activity. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1022 mb center near 30N50W. This system supports light to gentle winds and seas of about 2-4 ft north of 20N between 40W-55W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds along with seas of 4-6 are between the high and the aforementioned cold front. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to locally moderate NE winds are seen based on scatterometer data with seas of 4-6 ft. Please refer to the Special Features and Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N68W to eastern Cuba by late tonight as a stronger cold front moves into the northwest part of the area from near 31N76W to near Melbourne, Florida. The second front will merge with the first front late Tue night and reach from near 31N66W to 24N71W, where it will weaken to eastern Cuba by late Wed night. Fresh northerly winds will follow the second front and merged front through late Wed night. The merged front will stall from near 31N64W to 26N68W, to the central Bahamas and to the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys late Thu. Fresh northeast winds will begin to develop in the southwest part of the area, including the Straits of Florida, as the pressure gradient tightens behind the stationary frontal boundary. These conditions are expected to last into Fri night.

$$ GR