AXNT20 KNHC 270004 RRA

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC


A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 17W from 02N to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Interaction between this wave and the monsoon trough is resulting in scattered moderate convection from 05N to 08N between 14W and 17W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 42W, south of 10N and moving westward near 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature at the present time.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W south of near 82W. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough, scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to the Panama coast between 78W and 82W.


The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the of Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border across 03N20W to 03N32W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N32W to 01N38W, then from 01N41W to near Sucuriju, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 05N between 17W-28W, and from 01N to 03N between 42W and the Brazilian coast.


A cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana to 24N93W then continues as a stationary front to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along a squall line, up to 220 nm ahead of the front from 26N to the coast of Mississippi/Florida Panhandle. A 1016 mb high is analyzed along the Texas coast near Corpus Christi.

Fresh to strong winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident in this area. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist across the eastern and south central Gulf, including the Florida Strait. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail for the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the squall line continues to move ahead of the front and is producing gusty winds and rough seas near the strongest thunderstorms. Moderate to locally strong southerly flow can be expected in the central and eastern Gulf ahead of the front, with gentle to moderate winds behind it. The front will continue pushing eastward through the northern basin over the next few days, weakening over the northeastern Gulf by Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will persist ahead of the front through Fri. By the weekend, high pressure will settle over the basin, allowing winds to become gentle to moderate.


Convergent trades are coupling with favorable mid to upper-level winds to trigger scattered showers over the SE basin. Double Bermuda Highs continue to supply gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and NW basin. Fresh ENE to ESE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are seen just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present over the SW basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean during the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night through the weekend and into early next week.


A weak cold front curves westward from southeast of Bermuda to across 31N54W through 29N62W, where it transitions to a trough to 29N68W and northwest to beyond 31N29W. Scattered showers are noted north of 28N between 58W and 68W. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge extending from a 1031 mb high over the NE Atlantic across 31N29W to the Bahamas. This feature is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft N of 20N between 25W and the Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are found from 02N to 20N between 27W and the Less Antilles, and N of 12N between the African coast and 25W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward through Fri night as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, winds off the NE Florida coast will become fresh to locally strong tonight through Fri night. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region through the early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas through the weekend and into early next week.

$$ Aguirre