000
AXNT20 KNHC 091721
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell:
Recent satellite scatterometer data shows gale force westerly
winds continuing N of 28N, between 50W and 67W, occurring behind
an Atlantic cold front that extend through 31N43W to just offshore
of the north coast of Puerto Rico then westward across
Hispaniola. Seas in the area of gales are 20 to 30 ft in W to NW
swell, as measured by recent satellite altimeter data, and several
Sofar Ocean drifting buoys. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft
extend southward to the southeast Bahamas and to 20N as far W as
74W and southeast of the front to 38W. Generally fresh to strong
NW to W winds are ongoing behind the front extending to 24N, with
SW winds of similar magnitude ahead of the front. The cold front
will move slowly east through through Tue, while weakening, then
stall from around 31N38W to 18N56W. Gale-force winds are expected
to end early Tue morning, but the NW swell producing very rough
seas will persist, gradually subsiding from W to E, but remaining
above 12 ft for portions of the waters through Wed. Mariners are
urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.
South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building
southeastward across the western Atlantic and toward the Greater
Antilles early this week will tighten the pressure gradient across
the Caribbean, to produce increasing NE tradewinds. This will result
in gale force winds pulsing tonight and again Tue night offshore
of NW Colombia, mainly within about 90 nm from the coast. Seas
will build to 9 to 11 ft in association with these gales.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 09N09W and extends southwestward to near 02.5N29W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to the coast of
Brazil along 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection extends from 00N to 04N between 07W and 36W. Scattered
moderate convection extends from 00N to 04N between 36W and 50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure of 1025 mb is centered over the northeast Gulf just
offshore of the Florida Panhandle near 29N85.5W, with the
associated ridge extending southwestward across the basin and into
central Mexico. Thus, winds are anticyclonic, and light to gentle,
with some locally moderate E winds across the eastern Bay of
Campeche, and across the western Straits of Florida. Seas are 1
to 3 ft, except across the Straits of Florida, where 4 ft seas
are occurring.
For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through late week, bringing gentle to moderate mainly southerly
flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night, just west
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in southerly flow over the far
western waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in effect for waters offshore Colombia.
An Atlantic cold front is moving into the north coast of Puerto
Rico and extends westward across Hispaniola. Ahead of it, an old
front in the form of a trough extends across the central Leeward
Islands to near 14.5N67W. Scattered showers with gusty winds
prevail along the trough, and have recently moves ashore across
the northern half of Puerto Rico and the north coast of
Hispaniola, with the arrival of the front. High pressure is slowly
building from the NE Gulf of America southeastward to 65W behind
the Atlantic front, and is acting to produce fresh to locally
strong NE winds from the south coast of the Dominican Republic to
the coastal waters of NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds
prevail across the remainder of the basin W of the surface trough.
Seas 3 to 5 ft across NW portions, and 5 to 8 ft within the area
of fresh to strong winds. Large northerly swell has reached the
Mona and Anegada Passages and is entering into the Caribbean this
morning. Elsewhere across the SE part of the basin, moderate E
trade winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will build southward across the
basin through tonight, behind the cold front moving across Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola. This will lead to increasing trade winds.
Fresh NE winds will dominate much of the basin through mid- week,
with strong winds developing over the central Caribbean between
Hispaniola and Colombia. Winds are likely to pulse to gale- force
tonight and again Tue night offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large
NW to N swell will continue to move through the Mona Passage,
Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell in the western and central
Atlantic.
Hazardous marine conditions dominate much of the basin, as
described in the Special Features section, in association with a
large and deep low pressure system moving northeastward across the
NW Atlantic, and its associated cold front crossing the central
basin. Large NW to N swell is found behind the front to the
Bahamas and 77W, and has raced ahead of the front as far E as 25W.
Elsewhere, high pressure of 1026 mb centered along the NE Florida
coast and extends southeastward to 65W behind the cold front,
while 1027 mb high pressure is just W of the Canary Islands and
extends a ridge southwestward to 60W. Both of these ridges
dominate the remaining waters. Moderate to fresh trades are
impacting a belt S of 15N between Africa and the Windward Islands,
with seas in this region 5 to 8 ft in N to NW swell.
For the forecast W of 55W, very rough seas impacting waters E of
74W will slowly subside from W to E, falling below 12 ft region-
wide by Wed. Peak seas this morning along 31N to the SE of Bermuda
will be as high as 32 ft. High pressure will slide eastward across
the waters Tue through Thu, leading to mainly improving conditions.
Another frontal system passing mainly N of 30N Thu through Fri
will lead to strong SW winds N of 29N during that time.
$$
Stripling
