846
AXNT20 KNHC 241039
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W from
04N to 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the wave's environment.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 04N
to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 40W and 51W.
A tropical wave has been repositioned based on observations,
scatterometer data, and model guidance. The wave is now near 63W
and S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the wave's environment.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues
to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 07N57W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N and W of
35W.
The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 11N and W of 77W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed near 30N87W, with trough
extending SW from the low to 28N89W. Scatterometer data depict
moderate to fresh winds surrounding this low. To the SW, a 1017
mb high pressure is centered near 24N95W. Moderate anticyclonic winds
prevail over the western Gulf. Slight seas prevail across the
basin.
For the forecast, the low pressure over the northeastern Gulf
will continue to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms today. Over the next day or two, this system is
forecast to move generally westward across the north-central and
northeastern portion of the Gulf where some slow development is
possible. By this weekend, the system is likely to move inland,
ending its chances for development. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, heavy rainfall is possible for portions of the
northern Gulf coast through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds are forecast along the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland
daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
wave moving across the basin.
The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region
and a 1011 mb Colombian low is leading to fresh to strong trades
in the central and SW Caribbean, along with rough seas. Moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the E Caribbean
while moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the NW
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient combined with a tropical
wave passage will continue to support fresh to strong winds over
the east/central Caribbean through the end of the week. Fresh to
strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in the Windward
Passage are expected through the end of the week. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.
The subtropical Atlantic waters are dominated by surface ridging
stemming from the 1030 mb Azores high. Fresh to strong easterly
winds prevail N of Hispaniola and the Mona Passage while moderate
to fresh trades are elsewhere S of 24N between 55W and 75W. Fresh
NE winds are occurring N of 17N and E of 35W. Moderate seas
prevail across these areas. Strong to gale N to NE winds, and
rough to very rough seas are occurring in between the Canary
Islands, as well as near the coasts of Morocco, Western Sahara,
and Mauritania. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail with
moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas are expected through the end of the week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly
moderate seas are expected. A frontal boundary is forecast to
reach the NE waters toward the end of the work-week and dissipate,
with little change expected in winds and seas.
$$
ERA
