000
AXNT20 KNHC 160452
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter the W
Atlantic tonight. Ahead of the front, SW winds to gale force are
expected to develop by 16/03Z as the pressure gradient tightens in
the area, mainly N of 30N. Rough seas are expected with these
winds. These winds/seas will spread E ahead of the front through
16/18Z.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 04N21W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N21W to the coast of Brazil at 03S39W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of
33W and S of 07N.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front continues to move eastward across the NE Gulf, analyzed
from near 30N85W to 19N96W. A pre-frontal squall line occurring
just ahead of the front and into the Florida Big Bend. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in the vicinity
of the front mainly E of 90W, while moderate winds are W of 90W.
Rough seas prevail with the strongest winds, and moderate seas are
noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the cold front will exit to the southeast of
the basin Monday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds over the
eastern Gulf north of 25N will become moderate to fresh north
winds early on Mon as high pressure in the wake of the front
begins to slide eastward across the area. Winds will become gentle
to moderate along with slight to moderate seas beginning Mon
afternoon and continuing into early Tue before southerly moderate
to fresh winds develop in the western Gulf. These winds will
expand eastward in coverage through Fri as low pressure, with an
attendant cold front move through central Texas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A frontal remnant trough extends across Puerto Rico southwestward
into the east-central Caribbean along 68W. Fresh NE to E winds
prevail N of 15N, where seas are 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong winds
continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia to 15N, with seas of
6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, 1024 mb high pressure
centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is supporting moderate to
fresh E trades and moderate seas, E of 80W, and gentle to moderate
SE winds across the NW basin.
For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail
near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate
to rough seas are expected with these winds. Light to gentle winds
over the NW Caribbean will strengthen by the end of the week.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will
prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning has been issued for portions of the northwest
waters for tonight and into early Mon. Please refer to the
Special Feature section above for more details.
A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
through 31N42W to 23N52W, then become stationary to the Virgin
Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds
follow the front to 70W. Anticyclonic winds then become fresh
easterly winds N of Hispaniola, then fresh to near gale SE to S
winds through the Bahamas and across the waters E of Florida to
72W. This is outside of the Gale Warning area described above. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft within these winds, except 4 ft or less in the lee
of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas
prevail north of the trough due to high pressure in the region.
E of the cold front to 35W and N of 26N, fresh S to SW winds
prevail, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. E of 35W and N of 10N, fresh to
strong trades and rough seas prevail due to an enhanced pressure
difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N16W and lower pressures
in the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere S of 20N to the Lesser Antilles.
For the forecast west of 55W outside of the Gale Warning area,
high pressure over the area will slide eastward through Mon night
in response to intensifying low pressure that will track
northeastward over southeastern United States. The low will pull a
cold front across the waters offshore northern Florida late
tonight into Mon. A squall line will precede the front. The front
will reach from near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas and to west-
central Cuba by early Mon, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas
and to central Cuba Mon night, from near 31N57W to 24N65W and
stationary to South Florida Tue. The cold front portion will move
E of 55W late Tue while the stationary portion weakens, with
frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front Wed. An expanding
areas of fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas will
precede the front through Mon. Fresh to strong winds northerly
winds and building seas will follow the front into Mon night.
Seas are expected to build to around 12 ft in the far northern
forecast waters Tue, but shift to the far northeast part of the
area Wed before moving E of 55W Wed night. The fresh to strong
winds will diminish on Tue. Rough seas will linger elsewhere E of
60W through Thu. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the
latest forecasts.
$$
ERA
