000
AXNT20 KNHC 150825
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW waters later
this morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri
morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it
will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to
reach gale force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by this
evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the
upcoming weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and
rough seas.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed
by fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per
recent buoy and platform observations, and earlier ASCAT
scatterometer data, along with building and rough seas. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected across the coastal waters of the
NE Gulf, particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL
through much of today. Conditions will improve across the Gulf
region Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to
strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend,
potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico and
Veracruz on Sun.
Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N12W to 02N30W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 00N to
02N between 14W and 20W, and from 01.5N to 04N between 21W and
26.5W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special
Features section for more details.
As mentioned, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to
near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed by fresh to near
gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per recent buoy and
platform observations, and earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, along
with building and rough seas. Multilayer clouds, with possible
showers, are noted over most of the Gulf waters and Florida.
Mainly moderate SW-W winds with a pre-frontal trough are noted
across the remainder of the basin ahead of the front.
For the forecast, a cold front from the Florida Big Bend to near
Tampico, Mexico will move rapidly across the basin, shifting
southeast of the area by this evening. The front is followed by
increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve from
NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing front and surge
of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin this
weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean early this
morning, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted over the remainder of the east and central parts of the
basin S of 20N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
dominate the western Caribbean, except in the far NW Caribbean
where a pre-frontal trough reaches from the western tip of Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras with moderate NW winds to the W of it. Some
shower activity is observed near the trough. Elsewhere, patches of
low level moisture, with possible showers, prevail.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds
offshore of NW Colombia early this morning, then return Fri night
through the weekend and into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds will prevail through early today, except moderate
to fresh across the remainder of the central Caribbean S of 20N. A
cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today, stall
from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure
gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the
upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds
and building seas across the basin, while a reinforcing front and
surge of winds also arrives in the NW Caribbean by early Mon.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale
Warning.
A cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida where
it has stalled, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N
and W of 68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up
near this boundary. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and W of
68W, along with locally rough seas, mainly N of 30N.
High pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic
forecast region. Under the influence of this system, an area of
fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 26N and E of 35W to
the coast of W Africa, including near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic with
moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly
moderate seas are elsewhere. An upper-level low in the central
Atlantic near 23N38W is triggering some shower activity, while
moist southerly flow in the wake of a warm front now well N of 31N
supports additional shower activity N of 27N between 46W and 60W.
For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing front will move off
Florida later this morning and merge with the leading front,
reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall
and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the
front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force Thu
night east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front may
impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
