000
AXNT20 KNHC 191642
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jan 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1637 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1036 mb
high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These
two features will remain in place through the middle of the week,
before the high pressure weaken and shift eastward. Drainage flow
at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force tonight,
Tue night and Wed night. Rough to locally very rough seas are
forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW
Caribbean in the wake of the front. This will result in the
continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf
of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12
inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local
meteorological services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10.5W and extends
to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 01.5S42W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection extends from 01S to 06N and
east of 18W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 04S to
03N between 18W and 36W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1027 mb high pressure is building across the Gulf in the wake of
a cold front passage. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the front, which is moving across the central Bahamas and central
Cuba, supports moderate to fresh N winds east of 90W and in the
Bay of Campeche. Rough seas to 10 ft are ongoing in the SW Gulf
and portions of the SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf region. The
pressure gradient between this system and a frontal boundary
located over the NW Caribbean supports moderate to locally fresh N
winds and rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. These marine conditions will continue to diminish
today. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the
United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds and
building seas, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits
of Florida, late tonight through Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale
warning offshore Colombia.
A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh
to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the NW
Caribbean W of 80W. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by
a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, which is
supporting moderate to fresh trades over the E basin and fresh to
near gale- force trades over the central Caribbean where rough
seas to 10 ft are being reported by a ship.
For the forecast, frequent gusts to gale force are forecast at
night and early morning hours offshore Colombia through Wed. A
stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras will gradually dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong winds
and rough seas will persist over the NW Caribbean in the wake of
the front. By late Tue, strengthening high pressure over the SE of
the United States will reinforce the NE winds over the NW
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions
will improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to
transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras
supporting periods of heavy rainfall through mid-week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is moving across the central Bahamas, extending from
31N68W to central Cuba. Scattered showers are found along and
behind the front. The remainder basin is under the influence of
the Azores High, which is supporting a very broad area of fresh to
strong NE to E winds from roughly from 15N to 28N E of 60W, all
the way to the coast of W Africa. Seas are rough to very rough
with these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are across the tropical
waters along with rough seas to 10 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W
through Thu. The aforementioned cold front will stall from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Tue before dissipating on Wed.
High pressure building over the SE of the United States will boost
NE winds to fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas
and Florida Straits into the middle of the week.
$$ KRV
