000
AXNT20 KNHC 141741
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir, Tarfaya,
and Canarias Marine Zones, all of which are valid through at least
15/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France
High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N19W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and within 100 nm S of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A frontal remnant trough extends from the SE LA coast to the SE
Gulf W of Dry Tortuga. Scattered showers are seen near the north
end of the trough and also along the TX coast. Fresh to strong S
winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring W of 94W as a frontal
boundary approaches the region, with moderate to fresh S to SE
winds and 2-5 ft seas between 90W and 94W. The remainder of the
Gulf is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3
ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow prevails
over the western waters ahead of a cold front that will enter the
NW Gulf waters tonight into early Sun. Strong S to SW winds and
rough seas are expected in the N-central and NE Gulf with this
frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of the
area by Mon. High pres will build in the wake of the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A trade-wind regime persists across much of the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident off
northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft dominate the eastern and south-central basin. Moderate
to fresh NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted across the NW
basin, including the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage.
For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough
seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will prevail over
the Windward Passage and S of the Dominican Republic this weekend
as a high pressure center passing N of the area maintains a tight
pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas will prevail through early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N53W to the northeastern Dominican Republic. Scattered
showers showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 22N
between 47W and 59W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the
front and continue westward to the FL coast, with rough seas
occurring N of 27N between 43W and 58W. Seas elsewhere behind the
front are generally moderate, with slight seas in the vicinity of
the Bahamas and the FL coast.
For much of the remaining Atlantic between the front mentioned
above and 30W, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6-9 ft
prevail. To the E of 30W and N of 10N, a stronger pressure
difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N23W and lower pressures
in the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are confirmed by
scatterometer data off the coastal border of Mauritania and
Western Sahara.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 27N55W to
Hispaniola. Rough seas N of the front and E of 60W will subside
today. High pressure is building in the wake of the front. S winds
will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in
advance of another cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast
on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected
in the wake of the front.
$$
Adams
