971
AXNT20 KNHC 182318
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough is mostly over west Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 04N21W to 0.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection found along
the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh S winds and
3-5 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate
breezes elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas.
For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf
through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north
of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as
a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong
cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend
and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds
and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and
Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE
winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the
front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The gradient between 1022 mb high pressure SE of Bermuda and 1009
mb low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE
winds and 7 to 10 ft seas off the coast of Colombia, along with
fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere across the central
Caribbean. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night
offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near
and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of
Honduras this afternoon into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the
basin through the forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may
develop east of the Lesser Antilles late this week as a N swell
progresses through the central tropical Atlantic.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force
extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to
the tropical Atlantic near 31N47W and continues southwestward to
25.5N59W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central
Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity has ceased along the front,
although showers are likely ongoing. A broad ridge is building in
the wake of the front, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure area
SE of Bermuda near 31N67W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are found
ahead of the front west of 45W, with moderate to fresh NW to N
winds west of the front. Rough to very rough combined seas
primarily in NW swell persist west of the front to 74W as well,
with wave heights as high sas 15 ft near 31N53W. Farther east, a
ridge extends from high pressure near the Azores southwestward to
roughly 25N43W. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas are along the
ridge axis, with moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas southeast of
the ridge, and over the remainder of the Atlantic discussion
area. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about
35W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are
reporting dust.
For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 75W
will prevail today, in the wake of a weakening front extending
from the central tropical Atlantic through the central Bahamas.
Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of 27N and
east of 62W through late tonight. Seas will slowly subside from
west to east tonight into early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh E
to NE winds will continue through tonight over the central basin
as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Elsewhere,
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will occur offshore of
northern Florida into this weekend as a front passes north of the
region. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through
Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to push offshore
of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly
building seas are expected in the wake of the front through early
next week.
$$
KRV
