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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that extends from 12N56W to 12N60W to 18N along the tropical wave. This weather system, slowly, is becoming better organized. The atmospheric conditions appear to be conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during this weekend. The weather system is forecast to move westward across the central sections and the western sections of the Caribbean Sea. Expect heavy rainfall across parts of the ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. Please refer to the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones, for more details.

A Potential Heavy Rainfall event: A heavy rainfall event is possible across parts of Central America, from late this weekend into early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. flash flooding and mudslides may be possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. It is possible for the rainfall threat to be enhanced by the 68W/69W tropical wave/possible tropical cyclone development. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that are provided by your national meteorological service, for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 11N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within from 07N to 14N, within 300 nm to the east of the wave, and within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is about 230 nm to the west of the 68W/69W tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 08N to 12N, in Colombia and Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 160 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 08N to 13N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area from 07N to Hispaniola, SE Cuba, and Jamaica from the second tropical wave westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, beyond Costa Rica.

A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, from the border of Belize and Guatemala, southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in western Nicaragua. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the coastal waters of Honduras between 87W and 88W, and along the border of Nicaragua and Honduras between 86W and 87W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 05N26W, and from 04N to 03N between 28W and 46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 40W eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 16N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to Miami in Florida, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to northern Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the area that is from the coast of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel and 22N, between 85W and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The current Miami Florida-to-Yucatan Channel cold front will drift southward during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico through early Saturday. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The strong cold front will extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday, and move to the south of the area on Tuesday. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the region from Sunday night through Tuesday. Strong winds are possible in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 135 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either side of the line that extends from 12N56W to 12N60W to 18N along the tropical wave. This weather system, slowly, is becoming better organized. The atmospheric conditions appear to be conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during this weekend. The weather system is forecast to move westward across the central sections and the western sections of the Caribbean Sea. Expect heavy rainfall across parts of the ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. Please refer to the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones, for more details.

A second tropical wave is about 230 nm to the west of the 68W/69W tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 08N to 12N, in Colombia and Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 160 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 08N to 13N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area from 07N to Hispaniola, SE Cuba, and Jamaica from the second tropical wave westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia, beyond Costa Rica.

Active weather, associated with a developing area of low pressure along a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea, will shift westward into the western Caribbean Sea, through the weekend. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during this weekend, as the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond Miami in Florida, toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm to 240 nm to the SE of the cold front, from 24N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N and Cuba to 24N between 69W and 78W, along the coast of Florida from 25N to 26N.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 37N12W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 32N30W, to 26N57W to 27N68W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward, from the cold front eastward.

The current 31N68W-to-Miami Florida cold front will stall, and dissipate, from 28N69W to the Florida Keys on Saturday. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area, from Sunday night through Tuesday. Expect strong north to northwest winds, and building seas, behind the front.

$$ mt

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