855
AXNT20 KNHC 020445
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri May 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues southwestward to 03.5N26W. The ITCZ extends from
03.5N26W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 07.5N between 13.5W and 22W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
west of 91W, due to the pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high
pressure over eastern Gulf and lower pressures over central
Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas prevail
east of 91W. A diurnal trough is supporting fresh to locally
strong NE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers
are depicted from the coast of Texas to 23N and west of 94W.
For the forecast, high pressure will be the main feature
controlling the weather pattern across the Gulf through late Fri.
Its associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds over the basin through Sat morning. East
winds will pulse to strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula
and over the Bay of Campeche nightly through Fri in association
with a diurnal trough. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas
are expected across the Straits of Florida through Fri night.
Elsewhere, winds will diminish Fri into Sat for most of the zones.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the northern Gulf on
Sat before shifting east of the basin by Sun night. High pressure
will then build southward across the Gulf leading to mostly
moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the forecast zones
early next week, increasing to fresh to strong over the western
Gulf by early Tue as the gradient tightens.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a weak 1021 mb high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic and a 1010 mb low pressure
offshore Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds
across the Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area. In
additionally, this pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to
E winds south of Dominican Republic and offshore Colombia. Gentle
to moderate E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active near the monsoon trough off
the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama south of 12N. Divergent
flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough that extends
from the western Atlantic to the western Caribbean is supporting
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the north central
and northeast Caribbean, N of 14N, and across portions of
Hispaniola.
For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
northeast winds through the Windward Passage tonight. At the same
time, fresh northeast winds are expected south of the Dominican
Republic, mainly near Cabo Beata, and in the Lee of Cuba. Fresh to
strong northeast winds will materialize through the Windward
Passage again Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse north
of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night. Unsettled
weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean
into the weekend. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected
over the basin into early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends W-SW across the
Hispaniola. This feature is creating unstable atmospheric
conditions to the south and east of it, and supporting active
weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of
22N between Hispaniola and 63W. A 1014mb low pressure has been
analyzed near 28N51W. A surface trough extends southwestward from
the low pressure to the eastern Caribbean. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are active from 20N northward to 31N
between 42W and the low pressure at 51W. Northeast of the low,
stationary front continues from 26N61W to beyond 31N53W.
Northwest of the area, a 1021 mb high is centered near 31.5N72W.
The pressure gradient between the high and these features is
producing moderate to fresh NE winds to the west of the low and
surface trough, with strong NE winds north of the front between
55W and 61W. Seas 5 to 7 ft prevail to the east of the Bahamas.
Gentle winds are noted N of 29N and also N of the Bahamas, where
seas are 3 to 4 ft.
Farther east, 1025 mb high pressure is east of the front near
32.5N34W, and a 1004 mb gale center is north of Madeira near
36N11.5W. This pattern is supporting a large area of moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 13 ft seas over the eastern Atlantic
north of 20N and east of 32W, reaching near gale force on the
south and eastern side of the low. Moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail between 32W and the central Atlantic surface low and
trough. Seas across this region are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front and a surface
trough, with a weak low along it, will persist over the central
Atlantic between 50W and 60W over the next 48 hours. Fresh to
strong SE to S winds and building seas to rough are expected first
over the E side of the trough on Fri, then over the NW part of it
on Fri night and Sat due to the pressure gradient between the
trough/low and high pressure to the N. The low should dissipate by
Sun, and the trough is forecast to drift westward over the
forecast waters early next week. An area of fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas will persist near the northern end
of the trough axis affecting mainly the NE waters. Looking ahead,
a weak cold front will emerge off the northeast Florida coast late
Sat night into Sun where it may dissipate.
$$ KRV
