000
AXNT20 KNHC 052108
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02N17W. The
ITCZ extends from 02N17W to Brazil near 02S47W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the Equator and W of 36W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from the far western Panhandle of Florida
near Pensacola to just SE of the SE Louisiana to just S of
Brownsville, Texas in far NE Mexico. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
are W of the front and 4-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds under
weak ridging are E of the front with two weak surface troughs
analyzed. Scattered convection is W of a line from 29N89W to
22N93W.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near
Apalachicola, Florida to 26N95W and to 19N95W this evening, from
northeast Florida to 26N94W and to 19N994.5W tonight, then begin
to slow down as it reaches from near Tampa to 26N92W and
stationary to 18N94W by early Mon afternoon, from southwest
Florida to 25N90W to 24N94W and stationary to 18N94W late Mon
night, then stall and perhaps linger into most of Thu. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are expected
near the front. Fresh to strong northeast northeast winds and
rough seas will develop behind the front across portions of the
western Gulf into Mon, then similar conditions will materialize
over the NE Gulf Tue through Thu. Near gale, to at times gale
conditions, are possible near Florida Wed and Wed night.
Conditions improve Fri and Fri night as high pressure from the
eastern U.S will stretch southwestward toward the northern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between subtropical Atlantic high pressure
and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to locally strong
trades offshore Colombia, where seas are analyzed at 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted
in the eastern and central basin, with gentle to moderate trades
and 3-5 ft seas in the western basin. No significant convection is
noted on satellite imagery over the basin waters.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will shift
eastward through Mon allowing for pulsing strong winds and rough
seas offshore Colombia to diminish. A trough just north of
Hispaniola will drift west-northwestward toward the Bahamas
through Tue. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high
pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Trades may
increase again in the south-central Caribbean beginning mid-week
as a new and stronger area of high pressure builds southward over
the western Atlantic in the wake of a cold front.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Areas of high pressure centered near Bermuda and the Iberian
Peninsula are dominating the basin. A band of fresh to strong E-SE
winds are noted S of 27N to 20N and E of the Bahamas to 55W. Seas
are 6-10 ft across these waters. Scattered moderate convection is
also across these waters. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere S
of 29N and W of 50W along with 5-8 ft seas, with gentle to
moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas across the remainder of the
waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong east winds and
rough seas E of the Bahamas and N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
will gradually decrease into Mon as Bermuda high pressure moves E
and weakens. In the wake of the high, a cold front will move off
the SE U.S. coast early Mon, then slide slowly eastward through
early week. As it does, a westward moving inverted trough N of
Hispaniola will likely interact with the front and low pressure
may form as a result along the front in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. Any low that forms will track northeastward along the
frontal boundary, then N of the region Wed into Thu. The pressure
gradient between the low pressure and high pressure building in to
the SE U.S. will lead to widespread strong to near gale-force
northeast winds N and W of the cold front Tue through late week,
along with very rough seas. Mariners are advised to keep up with
the latest forecast and stay informed for possible gale conditions
developing as early as Tue.
$$
Lewitsky
