AXNT20 KNHC 191033

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as 16 ft. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United States will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow the gales to abate by Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05S between 22W-46W.


As of 19/0900 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from S Louisiana near 29N92W to S Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. 5-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast of central Florida near Tampa from 26N-29N between 82W-84W.

A cold front along the Texas coast will slowly move southeastward through tonight. Reinforcing cold air will then push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico Fri morning, and Veracruz Fri evening. Expect strong N-NE winds elsewhere behind the front and building seas through early Sat.


A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south- central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the warning section above. Otherwise, 10-30 kt tradewind flow continues across the Caribbean Sea. Weakest winds are over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are moving within the tradewind flow south of 19N.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia at night. Winds and seas will diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic Thu through Fri night. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri night, and move across the NW Caribbean through Sat night.


A 1035 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 39N17W. A ridge axis extends WSW to N Florida. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N56W to 20N57W. Scattered showers are within 360 nm E of the trough axis.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast today will stall near 30N through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front across the forecast area Thu night through Sat. Near gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front on Fri. Winds will gradually diminish across the region Sat and Sun. Large NE swell is expected to impact much of the area this weekend.

$$ Formosa