AXNT20 KNHC 010612

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.


...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico. The remnant low of Amanda is now centered over N Guatemala, but the focused area of circulation within the larger Central American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather, with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current situation, with the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details.

The remnant low of Amanda may rotate around the larger circulation of the Central American Gyre and move out over water in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium possibility that the remnant circulation of Amanda may develop into a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf when it emerges over water.


The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N15W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of Sierra Leone from 06N-11N between 13W-18W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ W of 37W.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days.

A dissipating cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to New Orleans Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is over the central Gulf. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Bay of Campeche and in the Yucatan peninsula, associated to the Central American Gyre. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

The weak cold front along the NE Gulf will fully dissipate tonight. However, a favorable middle to upper level pattern will continue to favor the continuation of showers and thunderstorms in this portion of the basin through Fri. Heavier showers are expected in the southern half of the basin associated with the remnant low of Amanda over Guatemala and a broad area of low pressure, known as a Central American Gyre, that is forecast to be nearly stationary the entire week. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas are expected in the Bay of Campeche through Wed associated with this scenario.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days.

The Central American Gyre is producing showers and thunderstorms across much of Central America and waters offshore central America. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico during the entire week supporting heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas will also increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Fri.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Jacksonville Florida. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1016 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. A surface trough extends S from the low to the S Bahamas near 22N73W. Scattered moderate convection is withim 120o nm if the low and trough. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to 28N30W to 31N38W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, gentle to moderate trade winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the open waters N of 20N. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range W of the Bahamas.

The W Atlantic cold front will extend from just east of Bermuda SW to the northern Bahamas by Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Tue. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed through Fri.

$$ Formosa