394
AXNT20 KNHC 300427
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Dec 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
near Sarasota, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured strong to gale-force winds behind the cold
front. Winds of 35-40 kt are present off southern Tamaulipas and
Veracruz. Rough to very rough seas are also occurring behind the
front with seas peaking near 18 ft off Tampico. Prolonged gale
force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the
western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Seas will peak
around 20 ft off Veracruz Tue. Conditions will improve from north
to south by midweek.
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front, stemming from a
storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters
near 31N35W and then curves southwestward and westward to near
19N58W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends
northwestward toward the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is
noted ahead of the front north of 22N. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured strong to near-gale force winds with
frequent gusts to gale force are on either side of the front north
of 27N between 32W and 51W. Large N swell generated from the
storm system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over
the forecast waters north of 21N between 33W and 60W. These very
rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from
south to north through the week.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W and continues to 08N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N18W to 04N35W to 00N50W. A few showers are evident
near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section above regarding gale
warnings.
Ahead of the frontal boundary discussed in the Special Features
section, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, a strong cold front from central Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico Gulf will shift across the basin through late
Tue. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected offshore
of Tampico through early tonight, and offshore of Veracruz and
the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue. Elsewhere behind
the front, widespread strong to near- gale force winds and rough
seas are expected. Winds and seas will slowly diminish from north
to south Tue into early Wed. High pressure will build over the
northern Gulf around midweek, with moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas over the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is
forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across
the south-central Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and SE
Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Low-level convergence
is producing a few showers in the NW Caribbean, especially off
Yucatan.
For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central
Caribbean into early Wed. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in
the south-central Caribbean, and may reach near-gale force offshore
of Colombia late tonight. Rough seas are expected near and to the
west of the strongest winds. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas
in N swell are expected through late Thu before seas subside. A
cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, with
fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas expected in the
wake of the front, including through the Yucatan Channel. The
front will weaken and eventually dissipate over the northwestern
basin by late week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for details on a gale
warning and a significant swell event in the central Atlantic.
Outside of the area in the Special Features section, a cold front
extends from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to near gale-
force are occurring north of 27N and west of 70W. Seas in these
waters are 6-10 ft. In the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, a
1019 mb high pressure dominates, supporting moderate or weaker
winds and moderate to rough seas west of 60W. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics results in moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 6-9 ft south of 15N and west of 30W. Elsewhere
in the central and eastern Atlantic, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate to locally rough seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, very rough seas in N swell will
prevail north of 22N and east of 60W will shift east of the area
by Tue morning. Widespread rough seas east of 65W will subside
from west to east through midweek. A cold front over the NW waters
will progress eastward through midweek, with fresh to strong SW
winds likely ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW
winds following the front. Rough seas associated with the front
are expected north of 28N, with seas subsiding from west to east
Tue through Wed. The next cold front is forecast to move off the
SE coast of the United States late this week, with increasing
winds and building seas likely near and behind the front.
$$
Delgado
