JHT 2017-2019 Goals

JHT 2017-2019 Goals (Text)

Provide GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based guidance products for the genesis timing and locations (with uncertainty measures) along ensemble storm forecast tracks that will be useful for issuing pre-genesis watches and warnings in the North Atlantic and throughout the North Pacific basin.
Provide seven-day intensity and intensity spread guidance products that are fully compatible with the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble-based genesis in timing and locations along the ensemble storm forecast track.

Transition of the newly developed AI-based RI prediction scheme into operational structure, including product transition.
Ensure product is sufficiently ready for the testbed experiments, including formatting the product output.
Development of a verification metric scheme to diagnose the performance of the product in real-time.

Produce a deterministic 'evolutionary programming' (EP) intensity forecast by selecting the best- performing EP algorithm.

Complete a number of upgrades to SHIPS/LGEM, the multi-lead time probabilistic Rapid Intensification Index (MLTRII), and the global Rapid Intensification Index (GRII).
Adding a tropical cyclone wind structure based predictor or combination of predictors.
Adding a predictor or a group of predictors based on the probability of the eye existence and the code to calculate that probability.

Recalculate the multiple logistic regression equations with recent years added to the developmental dataset to produce better calibrated probabilistic genesis forecasts.
Conduct sensitivity tests of the genesis criteria to increase the probability of detection, including for TC formation at higher latitudes when warm-core anomaly is strong but absolute warm-core magnitude may be less than in the deep tropics.
Enhance the algorithm that matches TC genesis events from multiple models and generates an even more reliable consensus genesis probability.
Complete the ongoing conversion of the existing code to Python to better fit NHC’s operational IT infrastructure.
Add the GEFS Reforecast v2 to the guidance suite as an experimental, but more homogeneous, source of guidance.
Evaluate the experimental GFS with the FV3 core with respect to TC genesis and compare results to the current GFS configuration.
Test feasibility of extending the guidance to the Central Pacific basin.

An operational algorithm to estimate the current intensity of TCs using most of the current available microwave satellite sensors will be developed.
Using a developmental dataset of 11-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) TC observations, a set of 85 GHz and rain related variables will be evaluated and selected as the input variables.
Regression models will be developed for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.