NHC Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 11:34:06 GMT

694
ABPZ20 KNHC 051133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located just to the south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to
latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern
to southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Summary for Hurricane Rachel (EP3/EP182026)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:15:02 GMT

...RACHEL SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 the center of Rachel was located near 20.4, -116.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Rachel Public Advisory Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:15:02 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 051514 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 ...RACHEL SLIGHTLY WEAKENS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 116.2W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rachel was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 116.2 West. Rachel is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days, with gradual weakening beginning by the mid part of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>

Hurricane Rachel Forecast Advisory Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:45:34 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2026 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 051445 TCMEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 116.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.1N 121.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.7N 123.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.0N 124.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 126.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 125.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>

Hurricane Rachel Forecast Discussion Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:46:35 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 051446 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 Rachel's satellite appearance continues to depict a ring of deep convection around a large eye. The system is dealing with some northeasterly wind shear, which has brought drier air that has entrained into the system and eroded some of the northern, particularly northwestern, side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased, with the TAFB subjective Dvorak classification a T4.5/77 kt, and using this estimate, the initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. The system is moving westward or 275/6 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States and eastern Pacific. This general forward motion should continue for the next several days. Toward the end of the period, a mid- to upper-level trough will move into the eastern Pacific northwest of the cyclone, causing the system to slow and make a sharp northeastward turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and continues to blend the HCCA and GDMI model solutions. Rachel is traversing marginally warm sea surface temperatures of around 26-27C while dealing with some shear and drier air. Given recent structural changes, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity over the next day or so. Beyond 36 to 48 h, sea surface temperatures cool along the forecast track, which, combined with increasing dry air, will induce a more steady weakening trend. Determining when Rachel becomes post-tropical has been tricky, as the aforementioned trough that will turn the system northeastward may induce some baroclinic support to maintain convection. Simulated infrared imagery shows that convection may become less organized by day 5, and the latest NHC forecast now depicts the system becoming post-tropical at that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the guidance envelope near the HCCA and GDMI in the short term, then trends closer to the rest of the consensus aids as the system weakens through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.4N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 21.1N 121.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 21.7N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 22.0N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.4N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.1N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>

Hurricane Rachel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 14:46:04 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2026 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 051445 PWSEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2026 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 34 X 38(38) 28(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 120W 50 X 4( 4) 18(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>

Hurricane Rachel Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:22:42 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2026 15:22:42 GMT