CPHC Central North Pacific

Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 17:38:19 GMT

476
ACPN50 PHFO 091738
TWOCP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands.

Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support
continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form later today or tonight. as the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. For more information,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecast issued by
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Well South-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual development is
possible late this week into this weekend as this system moves
slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly
NNNN

Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (CP4/EP122026)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:33:52 GMT

...LOWELL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Sep 09 the center of Lowell was located near 28.9, -163.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 55

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:33:52 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026 000 WTPA34 PHFO 092033 TCPCP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 55 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026 ...LOWELL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 163.7W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM NNW OF LIHUE HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 163.7 West. Lowell is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and then west is forecast today into Thursday. Then, the system's forward motion is expected to slow later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 55

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:33:23 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 332 WTPA24 PHFO 092033 TCMCP4 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 163.7W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 4 M SEAS....450NE 300SE 300SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 163.7W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 163.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.3N 165.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 80SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.3N 168.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 171.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.9N 171.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.3N 172.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.2N 174.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.7N 176.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 163.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 55

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:35:23 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026 403 WTPA44 PHFO 092035 TCDCP4 Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 55 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026 Lowell is dealing with moderate wind shear and dry air. Recent satellite imagery reveals that earlier deep convection has collapsed, with only shallow convection remaining sheared to the eastern side of the circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC have decreased to T2.5/35 kt, which is consistent with the system's degraded satellite presentation. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates currently range from 39 to 49 kt. Metop-B and Metop-C scatterometer passes are anticipated over Lowell near the advisory time, which will help better assess the current intensity and wind radii structure. Although current satellite estimates have decreased, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory, which may be generous. Subsequent adjustments will await the incoming scatterometer wind data. Lowell is expected to remain within a dry environment with moderate vertical wind shear. Model-simulated infrared imagery suggests that Lowell will continue to produce intermittent bursts of deep convection over the next several days, aided by some upper-level divergence in about 48 hours. The official NHC intensity forecast follows the latest consensus model guidance, depicting a gradual weakening of the system throughout the forecast period. By the end of the period, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler sea surface temperatures while continuing to deal with dry air and moderate shear. Although some uncertainty remains late in the period due to the system's eventual track and intermittent convective bursts, these hostile environmental conditions should cause Lowell to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4. The initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. Lowell should gradually turn west-northwestward and then westward, steered by a building mid-level ridge to the north and east. In a few days, the cyclone is forecast to round the western periphery of the ridge and slow forward speed. This decrease in forward speed will occur as the steering pattern collapses, leaving Lowell caught between high-pressure ridges over the northwestern and northeastern Pacific. Track model guidance begins to diverge considerably late in the period. This spread in the guidance largely depends on the vertical depth of the cyclone, and if the system remains a shallow low, it could begin to move southwestward, steered by the low-level flow on the eastern edge of the northwestern Pacific ridge. The official NHC track forecast lies near the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids in the near term, and then shifts toward the simple consensus later in the period, reflecting the higher uncertainty toward the end of the forecast cycle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 28.9N 163.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 29.3N 165.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 29.3N 168.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 29.9N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 30.9N 171.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 32.3N 172.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 33.2N 174.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1800Z 32.7N 176.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>

Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 55

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:33:52 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 000 FOPA14 PHFO 092033 PWSCP4 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 30N 165W 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 30N 165W 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 30N 170W 34 X 12(12) 34(46) 2(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) 30N 170W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 30N 170W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 35N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>

Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:22:48 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:22:48 GMT