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How To Read The Forecast/Advisory


The Forecast/Advisory is generally composed of several easily identified sections. These sections if present in the advisory will always occur in the order specified here.

Click on each section title to see the section highlighted and read the brief description of the section contents in the example Forecast/Advisory from Hurricane Isabel.

The Basic Sections of the Forecast/Advisory

  1. WMO Header
  2. Storm Location
  3. Storm Movement
  4. Minimum Central Pressure
  5. Eye Size Estimate
  6. Max Sustained Wind, Wind Radii, and 4-Meter Wave Height Radii Section
  7. Repeat
  8. 12-Hour Forecast
  9. 24-Hour Forecast
  10. 36-Hour Forecast
  11. 48-Hour Forecast
  12. 60-Hour Forecast
  13. 72-Hour Forecast
  14. 96-Hour Forecast
  15. 120-Hour Forecast
  16. Request for Ship Reports
  17. Next Advisory
Click here to highlight all of the basic sections.
WTNT23 KNHC 102156
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023


WMO Header Section

This section contains the assigned United Nations World Meteorology Organization (WMO) document identifier, the National Weather Service document identifier, the storm type and name, advisory number, the issuing center (in this case the NHC), and the date and time for the advisory, and a tropical cyclone identifier (the format is BBNNYYYY, BB=Basin (AL=Atlantic, EP=Eastern Pacific), NN=sequence number, YYYY=year).

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HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 61.7W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM


Storm Location Section

This section contains the location of the storm center in latitude and longitude with the issuance date/time of the product and an estimate of the accuracy, in nautical miles, of the position based on the type, quality, and resolution of the fix platform used.

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PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT


Storm Movement Section

This section details the current motion of the storm in knots or nautical miles per hour (1 knot = 1.15 mph), with the direction expressed in terms of 16 compass points and to the nearest 5 degrees (true) of azimuth (e.g. 360°=North, 90°=East, 180°=South, and 270°=West).

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ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB

Minimum Central Pressure Section

This section gives the minimum central pressure of the storm in millibars. Whenever a storm is only threatening the U.S., the wind speed in km/hour is usually discontinued. Although central pressure is not a hazard it can sometimes be an indicator of future changes in intensity. Strengthening oftentimes follows a decrease in pressure while weakening generally follows an increase in the pressure.

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EYE DIAMETER 20 NM

Eye Size Estimate Section

This section gives an estimate of the diameter of the eye of the tropical cyclone based on aircraft reconnaissance and/or radar data.

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MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


Max Sustained Wind, Wind Radii, and 4-Meter Wave Height Radii Section
This section gives the maximum sustained 1-minute wind speed, gusts, and map coordinates that indicate the extent of the wind field and the wave field. Wind quadrant values are quadrant radii for several wind values (if present): tropical storm force winds (34 knots), storm force winds (50 knots), and hurricane force winds (64 knots). The map coordinates are in compass directions radiating out from the center of the storm along the direction and distance in nautical miles as indicated. For example:
64 KT. . . . . . 105NE   90SE   40SW   70NW.
means that winds of 64 Knots (74 MPH) are possible anywhere within that quadrant out to 105 Nautical Miles (121 Miles) Northeast, 90 Nautical Miles (104 Miles) Southeast, 40 Nautical Miles (46 Miles) Southwest, and 70 Nautical Miles (81 Miles) Northwest, of the estimated center of the storm.

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REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 61.7W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 61.4W


Repeat Section

This section repeats the current center location and the location from the last advisory as a check against transmission errors and to assist mariners in charting the storm's movement. This section also contains the actual location of the storm 3 hours prior to the time of the advisory (in this case, the center at 1800Z or 2PM EDT / 1PM CDT on the 10th was 21.9°N 61.4°W).

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FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.


12-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 12-hour forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the Wind and Wave Radii section. As before, the map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles.

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FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 63.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.


24-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 24-hour forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the Wind and Wave Radii section. As before, the map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles.

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FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.8N 65.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.


36-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 36-hour forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the Wind and Wave Radii section. As before, the map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles.

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FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.


48-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 48-hour forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the Wind and Wave Radii section. As before, the map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles.

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FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.


60-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 60-hour forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the Wind and Wave Radii section. As before, the map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles.

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FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.


72-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 72-hour forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the previous section. The map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles, as in the Wind and Wave Radii section.

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.9N 68.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 200NW.


96-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 96-hour extended forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the previous section. The map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles, as in the Wind and Wave Radii section. Additional notes on track errors are added for the 96 and 120 hour forecasts. 34- and 50-knot radii are provided, if applicable.

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OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 33.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 160SW 200NW.


120-Hour Forecast Section

This section gives the 120-hour extended forecast for the tropical cyclone's position, the maximum sustained wind and gusts, and an estimate of the size of the wind field using the same threshold wind values as in the Wind and Wave Radii section. As before, the map coordinates of the wind field are compass directions and radial distances out from the center of the storm in nautical miles. 34- and 50-knot radii are provided, if applicable.

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REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 61.7W


Request for Ship Reports

This section is a request for ship reports from any vessels in the general vicinity of the tropical cyclone.

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NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z


Next Advisory Section

This section gives the scheduled release time of the next advisory, which will always be 6 hours after the actual time of this product (i.e. 0300Z, 0900Z, 1500Z, and 2100Z).

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FORECASTER BROWN