623 WTNT80 EGRR 281611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.6N 87.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2024 36.6N 87.6W MODERATE 00UTC 29.09.2024 37.2N 86.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2024 36.7N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 39.7N 40.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2024 39.7N 40.7W STRONG 00UTC 29.09.2024 41.4N 38.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 42.8N 36.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 43.7N 34.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2024 44.7N 30.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2024 46.1N 26.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2024 48.0N 25.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 50.3N 25.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 52.0N 24.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 53.9N 22.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 45.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2024 19.5N 45.5W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2024 20.6N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2024 21.4N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2024 21.9N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2024 22.6N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2024 23.3N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 24.2N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 25.6N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 27.0N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 29.4N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 33.5N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 35.7N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 39.7N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.7N 69.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2024 36.0N 69.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2024 35.7N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 35.5N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 35.7N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 35.8N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 34.3N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 33.8N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 33.4N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.1N 44.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2024 16.1N 44.0W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2024 17.6N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 18.8N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 20.8N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 21.3N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 21.9N 50.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 23.0N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 24.7N 52.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 22.9N 93.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2024 23.1N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 22.8N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 22.6N 94.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.4N 34.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2024 14.4N 34.9W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281611