437 
WTNT80 EGRR 050412

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.09.2024

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.5N  69.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.09.2024  33.5N  69.6W     WEAK
 12UTC 05.09.2024  33.6N  69.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2024  34.8N  69.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2024  37.1N  68.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2024  39.3N  66.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2024  41.6N  64.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2024  45.3N  62.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2024  49.5N  63.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.7N  95.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2024  25.7N  95.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2024  23.3N  95.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2024  21.4N  94.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2024  19.9N  93.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 32.2N  80.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2024  32.2N  80.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2024  33.1N  76.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2024  33.5N  72.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2024  35.3N  67.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2024  38.3N  62.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2024  42.5N  55.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2024        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.7N  17.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 10.09.2024  15.3N  19.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.09.2024  16.4N  23.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2024  17.3N  27.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2024  18.1N  31.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 26.6N  96.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.09.2024  26.7N  96.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2024  27.2N  95.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 43.6N   7.9E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 12.09.2024  44.2N   8.8E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 31.2N  77.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 12.09.2024  31.2N  77.6W     WEAK


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 050412