443 WTNT80 EGRR 191611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.10.2023 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 55.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2023 13.6N 55.1W WEAK 00UTC 20.10.2023 14.4N 57.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2023 15.3N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 107.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2023 17.2N 107.8W INTENSE 00UTC 20.10.2023 18.7N 108.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2023 20.1N 109.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2023 21.1N 110.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.10.2023 22.4N 110.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2023 23.3N 110.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2023 23.7N 110.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.10.2023 23.0N 109.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2023 23.8N 108.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2023 24.4N 108.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 8.6N 95.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912023 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.10.2023 8.6N 95.4W WEAK 00UTC 20.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 36.5N 70.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.10.2023 36.5N 70.0W MODERATE 12UTC 21.10.2023 41.8N 66.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.10.2023 45.5N 65.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 34.9N 18.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2023 34.2N 15.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.10.2023 35.3N 11.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2023 39.4N 7.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2023 46.2N 4.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2023 51.6N 0.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2023 54.7N 3.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 21.6N 67.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.10.2023 21.6N 67.0W WEAK 00UTC 24.10.2023 22.7N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2023 22.5N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2023 22.2N 65.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2023 21.9N 64.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2023 22.0N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2023 22.7N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 8.3N 125.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2023 7.8N 125.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2023 7.6N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2023 7.7N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2023 8.2N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191610